Gastos_casa %>%
dplyr::select(-Tiempo,-link) %>%
dplyr::select(fecha, gasto, monto, gastador,obs) %>% tail(30) %>%
knitr::kable(format = "markdown", size=12)
| fecha | gasto | monto | gastador | obs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/1/2024 | Comida | 7500 | Andrés | NA |
| 27/1/2024 | Jardinero | 40000 | Tami | NA |
| 29/1/2024 | Comida | 65786 | Tami | Supermercado |
| 30/1/2024 | Electricidad | 55759 | Andrés | NA |
| 3/2/2024 | donación | 50000 | Andrés | NA |
| 4/2/2024 | Comida | 46309 | Andrés | NA |
| 5/2/2024 | Comida | 33079 | Tami | Supermercado |
| 8/2/2024 | Enceres | 35440 | Andrés | casaideas |
| 18/2/2024 | VTR | 21990 | Andrés | NA |
| 22/2/2024 | Netflix | 8393 | Tami | NA |
| 25/2/2024 | Enceres | 4973 | Andrés | colgador manguera |
| 25/2/2024 | Enceres | 7980 | Andrés | adaptador vorriente y adaptadores manguera |
| 27/2/2024 | Enceres | 49980 | Andrés | detergente |
| 28/2/2024 | Enceres | 12000 | Andrés | 2 cajas orgamizadoras |
| 28/2/2024 | Electricidad | 56337 | Andrés | PAC ENEL_______ 00000001686518 28/02 |
| 29/2/2024 | Gas | 70997 | Andrés | 68 997 + propina 2 lks |
| 3/3/2024 | Comida | 53553 | Andrés | Supermercado |
| 4/3/2024 | Comida | 6000 | Andrés | pasas |
| 5/3/2024 | Uber cumple papá | 8582 | Tami | NA |
| 6/3/2024 | Agua | 16549 | Andrés | NA |
| 7/3/2024 | Enceres | 4645 | Andrés | descuentos desodorantes |
| 10/3/2024 | Comida | 7470 | Andrés | NA |
| 10/3/2024 | Comida | 90504 | Tami | Supermercado |
| 10/3/2024 | Diosi | 21081 | Andrés | pipeta |
| 11/3/2024 | Diosi | 66970 | Andrés | n&d 50990 + lavanda 3asy clean 10k 79990x2 |
| 17/3/2024 | Comida | 55951 | Tami | Supermercado |
| 19/3/2024 | VTR | 21990 | Andrés | NA |
| 24/3/2024 | Comida | 94384 | Tami | Supermercado |
| 31/3/2019 | Comida | 9000 | Andrés | NA |
| 8/9/2019 | Comida | 24588 | Andrés | Super Lider |
#para ver las diferencias depués de la diosi
Gastos_casa %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha= lubridate::parse_date_time(fecha, c("%d/%m/%Y"),exact=T)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha=strftime(fecha, format = "%Y-W%V")) %>%
dplyr::mutate(gastador=ifelse(gastador=="Andrés",1,0)) %>%
dplyr::group_by(gastador, fecha,.drop = F) %>%
dplyr::summarise(gasto_media=mean(monto,na.rm=T)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(treat=ifelse(fecha>"2019-W26",1,0)) %>%
#dplyr::mutate(fecha_simp=lubridate::week(fecha)) %>%#después de diosi. Junio 24, 2019
dplyr::mutate(gastador_nombre=plyr::revalue(as.character(gastador), c("0" = "Tami", "1"="Andrés"))) %>%
assign("ts_gastos_casa_week_treat", ., envir = .GlobalEnv)
gplots::plotmeans(gasto_media ~ gastador_nombre, main="Promedio de gasto por gastador", data=ts_gastos_casa_week_treat,ylim=c(0,75000), xlab="", ylab="")
par(mfrow=c(1,2))
gplots::plotmeans(gasto_media ~ gastador_nombre, main="Antes de Diosi", data=ts_gastos_casa_week_treat[ts_gastos_casa_week_treat$treat==0,], xlab="", ylab="", ylim=c(0,70000))
gplots::plotmeans(gasto_media ~ gastador_nombre, main="Después de Diosi", data=ts_gastos_casa_week_treat[ts_gastos_casa_week_treat$treat==1,], xlab="", ylab="",ylim=c(0,70000))
library(ggiraph)
library(scales)
#if( requireNamespace("dplyr", quietly = TRUE)){
gg <- Gastos_casa %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha= lubridate::parse_date_time(fecha, c("%d/%m/%Y"),exact=T)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(gastador=ifelse(gastador=="Andrés",1,0)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha_simp=tsibble::yearweek(fecha)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha_week=strftime(fecha, format = "%Y-W%V")) %>%
dplyr::mutate(treat=ifelse(fecha_week>"2019 W26",1,0)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(gastador_nombre=plyr::revalue(as.character(gastador), c("0" = "Tami", "1"="Andrés"))) %>%
# dplyr::mutate(week=as.Date(as.character(lubridate::floor_date(fecha, "week"))))%>%
#dplyr::mutate(fecha_week= lubridate::parse_date_time(fecha_week, c("%Y-W%V"),exact=T)) %>%
dplyr::group_by(gastador_nombre, fecha_simp) %>%
dplyr::summarise(monto_total=sum(monto)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(tooltip= paste0(substr(gastador_nombre,1,1),"=",round(monto_total/1000,2))) %>%
ggplot(aes(hover_css = "fill:none;")) +#, ) +
#stat_summary(geom = "line", fun.y = median, size = 1, alpha=0.5, aes(color="blue")) +
geom_line(aes(x = fecha_simp, y = monto_total, color=as.factor(gastador_nombre)),size=1,alpha=.5) +
ggiraph::geom_point_interactive(aes(x = fecha_simp, y = monto_total, color=as.factor(gastador_nombre),tooltip=tooltip),size = 1) +
#geom_text(aes(x = fech_ing_qrt, y = perc_dup-0.05, label = paste0(n)), vjust = -1,hjust = 0, angle=45, size=3) +
# guides(color = F)+
theme_custom() +
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2019-06-24"),linetype = "dashed") +
labs(y="Gastos (en miles)",x="Semanas y Meses", subtitle="Interlineado, incorporación de la Diosi; Azul= Tami; Rojo= Andrés") + ggtitle( "Figura 4. Gastos por Gastador") +
scale_y_continuous(labels = f <- function(x) paste0(x/1000)) +
scale_color_manual(name = "Gastador", values= c("blue", "red"), labels = c("Tami", "Andrés")) +
scale_x_yearweek(date_breaks = "1 month", minor_breaks = "1 week", labels=scales::date_format("%m/%y")) +
theme(axis.text.x = element_text(vjust = 0.5,angle = 35), legend.position='bottom')+
theme(
panel.border = element_blank(),
panel.grid.major = element_blank(),
panel.grid.minor = element_blank(),
axis.line = element_line(colour = "black")
)
# x <- girafe(ggobj = gg)
# x <- girafe_options(x = x,
# opts_hover(css = "stroke:red;fill:orange") )
# if( interactive() ) print(x)
#}
tooltip_css <- "background-color:gray;color:white;font-style:italic;padding:10px;border-radius:10px 20px 10px 20px;"
#ggiraph(code = {print(gg)}, tooltip_extra_css = tooltip_css, tooltip_opacity = .75 )
x <- girafe(ggobj = gg)
x <- girafe_options(x,
opts_zoom(min = 1, max = 3), opts_hover(css =tooltip_css))
x
plot<-Gastos_casa %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha= lubridate::parse_date_time(fecha, c("%d/%m/%Y"),exact=T)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha_week=strftime(fecha, format = "%Y-W%V")) %>%
dplyr::mutate(month=as.Date(as.character(lubridate::floor_date(fecha, "month"))))%>%
dplyr::group_by(month)%>%
dplyr::summarise(gasto_total=sum(monto)/1000) %>%
ggplot2::ggplot(aes(x = month, y = gasto_total)) +
geom_point()+
geom_line(size=1) +
theme_custom() +
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2019-06-24"),linetype = "dashed") +
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2019-03-23"),linetype = "dashed", color="red") +
labs(y="Gastos (en miles)",x="Meses/Año", subtitle="Interlineado, incorporación de la Diosi") +
ggtitle( "Figura. Suma de Gastos por Mes") +
scale_x_date(breaks = "1 month", minor_breaks = "1 month", labels=scales::date_format("%m/%y")) +
theme(axis.text.x = element_text(vjust = 0.5,angle = 45))
plotly::ggplotly(plot)
plot2<-Gastos_casa %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha= lubridate::parse_date_time(fecha, c("%d/%m/%Y"),exact=T)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha_week=strftime(fecha, format = "%Y-W%V")) %>%
dplyr::mutate(day=as.Date(as.character(lubridate::floor_date(fecha, "day"))))%>%
dplyr::group_by(day)%>%
summarise(gasto_total=sum(monto)/1000) %>%
ggplot2::ggplot(aes(x = day, y = gasto_total)) +
geom_line(size=1) +
theme_custom() +
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2019-06-24"),linetype = "dashed") +
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2020-03-23"),linetype = "dashed", color="red") +
labs(y="Gastos (en miles)",x="Meses/Año", subtitle="Interlineado, incorporación de la Diosi") +
ggtitle( "Figura. Suma de Gastos por Día") +
scale_x_date(breaks = "1 month", minor_breaks = "1 week", labels=scales::date_format("%m/%y")) +
theme(axis.text.x = element_text(vjust = 0.5,angle = 45))
plotly::ggplotly(plot2)
tsData <- Gastos_casa %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha= lubridate::parse_date_time(fecha, c("%d/%m/%Y"),exact=T)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha_week=strftime(fecha, format = "%Y-W%V")) %>%
dplyr::mutate(day=as.Date(as.character(lubridate::floor_date(fecha, "day"))))%>%
dplyr::group_by(day)%>%
summarise(gasto_total=sum(monto))%>%
dplyr::mutate(covid=case_when(day>as.Date("2019-06-02")~1,TRUE~0))%>%
dplyr::mutate(covid=case_when(day>as.Date("2020-03-10")~covid+1,TRUE~covid))%>%
dplyr::mutate(covid=as.factor(covid))%>%
data.frame()
tsData_gastos <-ts(tsData$gasto_total, frequency=7)
mstsData_gastos <- forecast::msts(Gastos_casa$monto, seasonal.periods=c(7,30))
tsData_gastos = decompose(tsData_gastos)
#plot(tsData_Santiago, title="Descomposición del número de casos confirmados para Santiago")
forecast::autoplot(tsData_gastos, main="Descomposición de los Gastos Diarios")+
theme_bw()+ labs(x="Weeks")
tsdata_gastos_trend<-cbind(tsData,trend=as.vector(tsData_gastos$trend))%>% na.omit()
#tsData_gastos$trend
#Using the inputted variables, a Type-2 Sum Squares ANCOVA Lagged Dependent Variable model is fitted which estimates the difference in means between interrupted and non-interrupted time periods, while accounting for the lag of the dependent variable and any further specified covariates.
#Typically such analyses use Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models to handle the serial dependence of the residuals of a linear model, which is estimated either as part of the ARIMA process or through a standard linear regression modeling process [9,17]. All such time series methods enable the effect of the event to be separated from general trends and serial dependencies in time, thereby enabling valid statistical inferences to be made about whether an intervention has had an effect on a time series.
#it uses Type-2 Sum Squares ANCOVA Lagged Dependent Variable model
#ITSA model da cuenta de observaciones autocorrelacionadas e impactos dinámicos mediante una regresión de deltas en rezagados. Una vez que se incorporan en el modelo, se controlan.
#residual autocorrelation assumptions
#TSA allows the model to account for baseline levels and trends present in the data therefore allowing us to attribute significant changes to the interruption
#RDestimate(all~agecell,data=metro_region,cutpoint = 21)
tsdata_gastos_trend<-cbind(tsData,trend=as.vector(tsData_gastos$trend))%>% na.omit()
itsa_metro_region_quar2<-
its.analysis::itsa.model(time = "day", depvar = "trend",data=tsdata_gastos_trend,
interrupt_var = "covid",
alpha = 0.05,no.plots = F, bootstrap = TRUE, Reps = 10000, print = F)
print(itsa_metro_region_quar2)
## [[1]]
## [1] "ITSA Model Fit"
##
## $aov.result
## Anova Table (Type II tests)
##
## Response: depvar
## Sum Sq Df F value Pr(>F)
## interrupt_var 8.4299e+08 2 8.0483 4e-04 ***
## lag_depvar 1.0018e+11 1 1912.8914 <2e-16 ***
## Residuals 3.5769e+10 683
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## $tukey.result
## Tukey multiple comparisons of means
## 95% family-wise confidence level
##
## Fit: stats::aov(formula = x$depvar ~ x$interrupt_var)
##
## $`x$interrupt_var`
## diff lwr upr p adj
## 1-0 7228.838 936.2344 13521.44 0.0195295
## 2-0 29244.420 23541.4256 34947.42 0.0000000
## 2-1 22015.582 18668.5295 25362.64 0.0000000
##
##
## $data
## depvar interrupt_var lag_depvar
## 2 19269.29 0 16010.00
## 3 24139.00 0 19269.29
## 4 23816.14 0 24139.00
## 5 26510.14 0 23816.14
## 6 23456.71 0 26510.14
## 7 24276.71 0 23456.71
## 8 18818.71 0 24276.71
## 9 18517.14 0 18818.71
## 10 15475.29 0 18517.14
## 11 16365.29 0 15475.29
## 12 12621.29 0 16365.29
## 13 12679.86 0 12621.29
## 14 13440.71 0 12679.86
## 15 15382.86 0 13440.71
## 16 13459.71 0 15382.86
## 17 14644.14 0 13459.71
## 18 13927.00 0 14644.14
## 19 22034.57 0 13927.00
## 20 20986.00 0 22034.57
## 21 20390.57 0 20986.00
## 22 22554.14 0 20390.57
## 23 21782.57 0 22554.14
## 24 22529.57 0 21782.57
## 25 24642.71 0 22529.57
## 26 17692.29 0 24642.71
## 27 19668.29 0 17692.29
## 28 28640.00 0 19668.29
## 29 28706.00 0 28640.00
## 30 28331.57 0 28706.00
## 31 25617.86 0 28331.57
## 32 27223.29 0 25617.86
## 33 31622.57 0 27223.29
## 34 32021.43 0 31622.57
## 35 33634.57 0 32021.43
## 36 30784.86 0 33634.57
## 37 34770.57 0 30784.86
## 38 38443.00 1 34770.57
## 39 35073.00 1 38443.00
## 40 31422.29 1 35073.00
## 41 30103.29 1 31422.29
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## 276 63044.86 2 69999.29
## 277 63285.29 2 63044.86
## 278 61395.43 2 63285.29
## 279 67969.43 2 61395.43
## 280 60792.57 2 67969.43
## 281 56859.14 2 60792.57
## 282 44899.43 2 56859.14
## 283 43064.14 2 44899.43
## 284 62790.29 2 43064.14
## 285 69120.71 2 62790.29
## 286 69589.43 2 69120.71
## 287 66633.29 2 69589.43
## 288 65588.57 2 66633.29
## 289 70168.57 2 65588.57
## 290 74644.71 2 70168.57
## 291 52891.00 2 74644.71
## 292 41560.57 2 52891.00
## 293 34704.86 2 41560.57
## 294 46520.00 2 34704.86
## 295 50231.00 2 46520.00
## 296 49216.71 2 50231.00
## 297 76914.86 2 49216.71
## 298 83720.71 2 76914.86
## 299 84485.00 2 83720.71
## 300 89765.00 2 84485.00
## 301 87702.86 2 89765.00
## 302 82013.86 2 87702.86
## 303 85982.43 2 82013.86
## 304 57248.43 2 85982.43
## 305 52968.43 2 57248.43
## 306 52601.86 2 52968.43
## 307 45493.29 2 52601.86
## 308 42298.86 2 45493.29
## 309 46423.71 2 42298.86
## 310 37898.00 2 46423.71
## 311 36435.14 2 37898.00
## 312 30209.57 2 36435.14
## 313 34541.86 2 30209.57
## 314 33604.71 2 34541.86
## 315 37990.71 2 33604.71
## 316 35683.43 2 37990.71
## 317 65201.86 2 35683.43
## 318 62730.57 2 65201.86
## 319 64589.14 2 62730.57
## 320 73744.86 2 64589.14
## 321 76477.71 2 73744.86
## 322 105647.43 2 76477.71
## 323 103790.29 2 105647.43
## 324 76122.29 2 103790.29
## 325 74746.14 2 76122.29
## 326 72865.71 2 74746.14
## 327 63652.57 2 72865.71
## 328 60358.29 2 63652.57
## 329 25957.14 2 60358.29
## 330 30178.43 2 25957.14
## 331 30681.57 2 30178.43
## 332 33337.29 2 30681.57
## 333 32582.71 2 33337.29
## 334 39184.43 2 32582.71
## 335 40415.71 2 39184.43
## 336 34975.43 2 40415.71
## 337 34076.14 2 34975.43
## 338 34221.14 2 34076.14
## 339 28862.57 2 34221.14
## 340 35729.86 2 28862.57
## 341 36489.29 2 35729.86
## 342 36785.14 2 36489.29
## 343 37787.71 2 36785.14
## 344 39832.14 2 37787.71
## 345 41917.86 2 39832.14
## 346 41633.57 2 41917.86
## 347 33557.00 2 41633.57
## 348 22759.57 2 33557.00
## 349 28877.86 2 22759.57
## 350 27574.00 2 28877.86
## 351 27104.71 2 27574.00
## 352 24376.14 2 27104.71
## 353 29732.29 2 24376.14
## 354 34030.00 2 29732.29
## 355 39139.71 2 34030.00
## 356 37066.57 2 39139.71
## 357 38509.29 2 37066.57
## 358 40957.29 2 38509.29
## 359 49423.00 2 40957.29
## 360 50053.29 2 49423.00
## 361 50284.14 2 50053.29
## 362 53103.86 2 50284.14
## 363 50223.00 2 53103.86
## 364 49587.14 2 50223.00
## 365 41167.71 2 49587.14
## 366 37958.71 2 41167.71
## 367 33582.29 2 37958.71
## 368 31039.43 2 33582.29
## 369 26526.57 2 31039.43
## 370 34869.43 2 26526.57
## 371 37487.43 2 34869.43
## 372 46514.43 2 37487.43
## 373 39613.43 2 46514.43
## 374 38980.57 2 39613.43
## 375 37306.14 2 38980.57
## 376 36771.29 2 37306.14
## 377 26317.00 2 36771.29
## 378 31580.71 2 26317.00
## 379 23626.57 2 31580.71
## 380 33035.71 2 23626.57
## 381 44864.57 2 33035.71
## 382 48946.14 2 44864.57
## 383 46969.57 2 48946.14
## 384 49249.57 2 46969.57
## 385 56370.14 2 49249.57
## 386 67228.71 2 56370.14
## 387 59457.29 2 67228.71
## 388 53124.71 2 59457.29
## 389 52814.14 2 53124.71
## 390 61262.00 2 52814.14
## 391 61861.14 2 61262.00
## 392 71784.71 2 61861.14
## 393 59313.29 2 71784.71
## 394 61107.00 2 59313.29
## 395 60603.43 2 61107.00
## 396 60012.57 2 60603.43
## 397 58280.43 2 60012.57
## 398 56862.71 2 58280.43
## 399 41704.43 2 56862.71
## 400 51533.00 2 41704.43
## 401 50388.71 2 51533.00
## 402 49205.29 2 50388.71
## 403 56533.29 2 49205.29
## 404 47996.14 2 56533.29
## 405 47207.57 2 47996.14
## 406 45292.00 2 47207.57
## 407 40343.43 2 45292.00
## 408 39004.86 2 40343.43
## 409 36788.43 2 39004.86
## 410 30027.57 2 36788.43
## 411 39040.14 2 30027.57
## 412 42390.14 2 39040.14
## 413 36291.14 2 42390.14
## 414 30668.29 2 36291.14
## 415 47693.00 2 30668.29
## 416 52094.43 2 47693.00
## 417 56592.57 2 52094.43
## 418 47971.43 2 56592.57
## 419 43762.43 2 47971.43
## 420 42246.71 2 43762.43
## 421 46352.43 2 42246.71
## 422 33094.86 2 46352.43
## 423 32784.86 2 33094.86
## 424 26212.43 2 32784.86
## 425 32611.57 2 26212.43
## 426 42144.86 2 32611.57
## 427 50034.86 2 42144.86
## 428 46332.00 2 50034.86
## 429 42976.29 2 46332.00
## 430 39456.29 2 42976.29
## 431 39328.29 2 39456.29
## 432 35296.14 2 39328.29
## 433 30875.43 2 35296.14
## 434 27709.00 2 30875.43
## 435 29513.29 2 27709.00
## 436 31630.43 2 29513.29
## 437 29346.14 2 31630.43
## 438 34916.86 2 29346.14
## 439 42020.86 2 34916.86
## 440 38303.00 2 42020.86
## 441 37966.43 2 38303.00
## 442 41408.14 2 37966.43
## 443 38988.14 2 41408.14
## 444 43555.29 2 38988.14
## 445 38114.00 2 43555.29
## 446 27847.86 2 38114.00
## 447 26517.00 2 27847.86
## 448 39518.29 2 26517.00
## 449 39153.71 2 39518.29
## 450 45623.14 2 39153.71
## 451 40627.43 2 45623.14
## 452 41027.71 2 40627.43
## 453 42882.86 2 41027.71
## 454 47139.43 2 42882.86
## 455 35547.57 2 47139.43
## 456 41099.00 2 35547.57
## 457 35859.57 2 41099.00
## 458 44524.57 2 35859.57
## 459 48554.29 2 44524.57
## 460 51554.29 2 48554.29
## 461 47810.29 2 51554.29
## 462 50490.00 2 47810.29
## 463 50720.71 2 50490.00
## 464 52720.71 2 50720.71
## 465 52145.57 2 52720.71
## 466 55515.57 2 52145.57
## 467 52457.00 2 55515.57
## 468 58239.57 2 52457.00
## 469 50523.57 2 58239.57
## 470 47788.57 2 50523.57
## 471 46170.00 2 47788.57
## 472 42305.57 2 46170.00
## 473 46605.57 2 42305.57
## 474 55149.57 2 46605.57
## 475 48769.57 2 55149.57
## 476 50719.43 2 48769.57
## 477 44753.71 2 50719.43
## 478 42898.00 2 44753.71
## 479 46141.14 2 42898.00
## 480 34022.57 2 46141.14
## 481 26651.86 2 34022.57
## 482 28791.86 2 26651.86
## 483 31879.00 2 28791.86
## 484 33584.71 2 31879.00
## 485 34690.43 2 33584.71
## 486 27410.43 2 34690.43
## 487 41755.00 2 27410.43
## 488 49379.57 2 41755.00
## 489 57198.86 2 49379.57
## 490 51144.57 2 57198.86
## 491 56677.43 2 51144.57
## 492 65416.43 2 56677.43
## 493 69779.71 2 65416.43
## 494 54046.00 2 69779.71
## 495 43259.57 2 54046.00
## 496 40998.57 2 43259.57
## 497 41368.57 2 40998.57
## 498 42274.29 2 41368.57
## 499 35962.71 2 42274.29
## 500 38709.00 2 35962.71
## 501 44778.14 2 38709.00
## 502 51282.43 2 44778.14
## 503 52094.86 2 51282.43
## 504 52221.43 2 52094.86
## 505 45011.43 2 52221.43
## 506 46545.43 2 45011.43
## 507 42263.00 2 46545.43
## 508 45417.43 2 42263.00
## 509 45034.71 2 45417.43
## 510 37840.57 2 45034.71
## 511 39135.43 2 37840.57
## 512 38191.14 2 39135.43
## 513 39456.86 2 38191.14
## 514 42479.14 2 39456.86
## 515 34282.57 2 42479.14
## 516 28878.43 2 34282.57
## 517 56227.14 2 28878.43
## 518 65569.43 2 56227.14
## 519 69751.29 2 65569.43
## 520 62171.71 2 69751.29
## 521 63705.14 2 62171.71
## 522 79257.86 2 63705.14
## 523 87244.71 2 79257.86
## 524 58568.00 2 87244.71
## 525 52695.29 2 58568.00
## 526 48911.00 2 52695.29
## 527 53924.00 2 48911.00
## 528 53358.86 2 53924.00
## 529 42121.14 2 53358.86
## 530 47835.71 2 42121.14
## 531 62329.29 2 47835.71
## 532 56056.86 2 62329.29
## 533 59946.43 2 56056.86
## 534 64511.57 2 59946.43
## 535 61137.43 2 64511.57
## 536 55448.71 2 61137.43
## 537 47964.43 2 55448.71
## 538 46425.71 2 47964.43
## 539 55512.00 2 46425.71
## 540 55226.29 2 55512.00
## 541 46709.14 2 55226.29
## 542 49254.71 2 46709.14
## 543 49056.29 2 49254.71
## 544 49850.57 2 49056.29
## 545 39145.71 2 49850.57
## 546 29799.43 2 39145.71
## 547 34769.86 2 29799.43
## 548 44061.57 2 34769.86
## 549 43829.14 2 44061.57
## 550 45782.00 2 43829.14
## 551 38924.57 2 45782.00
## 552 49242.43 2 38924.57
## 553 50565.00 2 49242.43
## 554 38864.43 2 50565.00
## 555 49786.71 2 38864.43
## 556 58787.86 2 49786.71
## 557 58060.86 2 58787.86
## 558 62179.43 2 58060.86
## 559 57333.86 2 62179.43
## 560 70797.00 2 57333.86
## 561 89901.71 2 70797.00
## 562 78558.14 2 89901.71
## 563 65466.00 2 78558.14
## 564 70525.00 2 65466.00
## 565 68377.86 2 70525.00
## 566 69736.29 2 68377.86
## 567 60085.86 2 69736.29
## 568 41757.00 2 60085.86
## 569 49780.29 2 41757.00
## 570 56540.29 2 49780.29
## 571 57894.29 2 56540.29
## 572 60270.29 2 57894.29
## 573 61011.00 2 60270.29
## 574 57721.43 2 61011.00
## 575 71741.00 2 57721.43
## 576 59576.00 2 71741.00
## 577 52390.29 2 59576.00
## 578 61092.29 2 52390.29
## 579 62814.00 2 61092.29
## 580 54908.29 2 62814.00
## 581 62082.00 2 54908.29
## 582 57017.71 2 62082.00
## 583 53634.43 2 57017.71
## 584 69169.00 2 53634.43
## 585 52488.14 2 69169.00
## 586 60895.57 2 52488.14
## 587 59856.57 2 60895.57
## 588 52670.00 2 59856.57
## 589 51874.57 2 52670.00
## 590 52190.57 2 51874.57
## 591 41562.43 2 52190.57
## 592 44764.14 2 41562.43
## 593 38612.71 2 44764.14
## 594 43473.14 2 38612.71
## 595 53505.00 2 43473.14
## 596 45870.86 2 53505.00
## 597 52578.00 2 45870.86
## 598 55300.00 2 52578.00
## 599 61789.71 2 55300.00
## 600 57391.71 2 61789.71
## 601 62902.29 2 57391.71
## 602 53250.43 2 62902.29
## 603 55402.57 2 53250.43
## 604 56291.29 2 55402.57
## 605 58933.57 2 56291.29
## 606 59590.71 2 58933.57
## 607 59065.00 2 59590.71
## 608 52399.57 2 59065.00
## 609 60483.43 2 52399.57
## 610 58262.71 2 60483.43
## 611 54939.71 2 58262.71
## 612 51169.00 2 54939.71
## 613 43113.29 2 51169.00
## 614 56289.71 2 43113.29
## 615 60739.86 2 56289.71
## 616 50363.14 2 60739.86
## 617 62270.86 2 50363.14
## 618 67061.57 2 62270.86
## 619 59609.00 2 67061.57
## 620 85054.00 2 59609.00
## 621 68023.29 2 85054.00
## 622 59242.29 2 68023.29
## 623 61535.14 2 59242.29
## 624 56215.86 2 61535.14
## 625 45152.29 2 56215.86
## 626 57409.57 2 45152.29
## 627 35151.43 2 57409.57
## 628 34991.43 2 35151.43
## 629 45944.71 2 34991.43
## 630 57944.71 2 45944.71
## 631 55706.29 2 57944.71
## 632 88593.71 2 55706.29
## 633 77359.43 2 88593.71
## 634 79878.71 2 77359.43
## 635 81753.00 2 79878.71
## 636 75716.00 2 81753.00
## 637 67381.43 2 75716.00
## 638 63528.57 2 67381.43
## 639 49682.86 2 63528.57
## 640 47815.00 2 49682.86
## 641 46546.14 2 47815.00
## 642 44808.71 2 46546.14
## 643 42959.57 2 44808.71
## 644 46023.86 2 42959.57
## 645 51309.57 2 46023.86
## 646 68447.29 2 51309.57
## 647 84959.29 2 68447.29
## 648 81666.29 2 84959.29
## 649 82700.86 2 81666.29
## 650 89422.14 2 82700.86
## 651 104812.71 2 89422.14
## 652 98812.71 2 104812.71
## 653 64779.86 2 98812.71
## 654 61862.86 2 64779.86
## 655 58376.43 2 61862.86
## 656 59503.57 2 58376.43
## 657 55429.43 2 59503.57
## 658 44454.57 2 55429.43
## 659 47184.00 2 44454.57
## 660 52126.71 2 47184.00
## 661 51202.00 2 52126.71
## 662 64437.14 2 51202.00
## 663 64297.14 2 64437.14
## 664 64628.57 2 64297.14
## 665 51413.14 2 64628.57
## 666 52969.43 2 51413.14
## 667 54135.29 2 52969.43
## 668 48799.43 2 54135.29
## 669 41907.86 2 48799.43
## 670 45382.00 2 41907.86
## 671 42633.29 2 45382.00
## 672 46624.71 2 42633.29
## 673 44051.86 2 46624.71
## 674 35852.86 2 44051.86
## 675 29737.71 2 35852.86
## 676 29734.86 2 29737.71
## 677 32881.71 2 29734.86
## 678 38298.57 2 32881.71
## 679 40886.14 2 38298.57
## 680 38601.86 2 40886.14
## 681 38628.86 2 38601.86
## 682 39142.57 2 38628.86
## 683 32666.14 2 39142.57
## 684 39911.57 2 32666.14
## 685 39336.29 2 39911.57
## 686 39678.86 2 39336.29
## 687 41963.14 2 39678.86
## 688 54220.57 2 41963.14
##
## $alpha
## [1] 0.05
##
## $itsa.result
## [1] "Significant variation between time periods with chosen alpha"
##
## $group.means
## interrupt_var count mean s.d.
## 1 0 37 22066.04 6308.636
## 2 1 120 29463.10 9187.258
## 3 2 531 51478.68 15327.218
##
## $dependent
## [1] 19269.29 24139.00 23816.14 26510.14 23456.71 24276.71 18818.71
## [8] 18517.14 15475.29 16365.29 12621.29 12679.86 13440.71 15382.86
## [15] 13459.71 14644.14 13927.00 22034.57 20986.00 20390.57 22554.14
## [22] 21782.57 22529.57 24642.71 17692.29 19668.29 28640.00 28706.00
## [29] 28331.57 25617.86 27223.29 31622.57 32021.43 33634.57 30784.86
## [36] 34770.57 38443.00 35073.00 31422.29 30103.29 19319.29 27926.29
## [43] 30715.43 31962.29 39790.14 39211.57 44548.57 49398.00 41039.00
## [50] 34821.29 29123.57 21275.71 28476.14 24561.86 20323.57 25370.00
## [57] 26811.86 27151.86 27623.29 22896.57 41889.29 44000.14 38558.00
## [64] 43373.86 49001.00 61213.29 58939.57 42046.86 39191.71 42646.43
## [71] 36121.57 30915.57 20273.43 23938.29 19274.29 21662.29 15819.00
## [78] 18126.14 17240.71 16127.71 13917.14 15379.86 19510.14 24567.29
## [85] 25700.43 25729.00 26435.00 31157.14 29818.43 30962.43 28746.71
## [92] 27830.71 28252.14 28717.57 21365.43 24816.86 16838.57 15529.14
## [99] 13286.29 13629.43 14404.86 19524.86 18475.71 22495.00 22254.57
## [106] 24173.29 27466.43 24602.43 20531.14 20846.43 23875.71 36312.71
## [113] 34244.00 36347.43 39779.71 42018.71 39372.57 33444.00 29255.86
## [120] 31640.14 29671.14 31023.71 39723.43 39314.14 38239.86 34649.43
## [127] 36688.43 42867.57 42226.86 32155.14 33603.00 37254.43 33145.57
## [134] 31299.43 30252.00 26310.71 27929.86 27666.14 25017.57 27335.00
## [141] 25760.71 18436.86 21906.00 19418.14 22826.14 23444.29 25264.86
## [148] 25473.29 27366.86 28855.86 32326.86 27141.43 26297.71 23499.14
## [155] 30246.29 39931.86 38020.43 35004.00 40750.86 42363.29 46273.57
## [162] 41083.29 35711.29 41921.71 60583.29 63115.57 61300.14 57666.43
## [169] 55834.00 58927.71 57810.57 48987.14 52219.29 56503.57 56545.00
## [176] 64705.57 53833.29 50114.00 39592.43 29907.29 33923.29 45489.00
## [183] 44866.29 51680.57 58257.00 70600.57 76648.00 69430.14 69651.57
## [190] 77745.14 72795.86 67670.71 55357.86 48524.00 50154.43 45111.57
## [197] 36147.00 43501.57 41472.43 41058.00 41605.57 49382.86 59558.57
## [204] 59134.57 61109.00 63004.43 67344.29 78180.86 69117.86 55597.57
## [211] 49426.14 39119.43 35636.86 39201.14 27777.00 47207.00 55587.29
## [218] 56619.71 82679.86 91259.57 93552.71 102242.71 91884.00 85013.86
## [225] 84535.29 80700.43 79740.57 85163.14 86724.86 80355.00 74875.14
## [232] 81347.00 66062.43 56946.43 47732.14 38129.71 42928.29 45392.57
## [239] 37895.43 30660.29 42430.86 35845.14 40350.43 31494.71 30013.29
## [246] 34197.57 37430.14 26932.43 33729.86 38081.43 44028.00 47139.71
## [253] 46558.86 58350.57 78380.00 78168.29 70510.86 72207.14 67881.00
## [260] 69536.43 62390.71 50113.14 45565.57 45805.29 41348.57 51426.86
## [267] 47160.57 51907.43 49751.43 54407.43 54746.29 61634.57 58926.43
## [274] 69999.29 63044.86 63285.29 61395.43 67969.43 60792.57 56859.14
## [281] 44899.43 43064.14 62790.29 69120.71 69589.43 66633.29 65588.57
## [288] 70168.57 74644.71 52891.00 41560.57 34704.86 46520.00 50231.00
## [295] 49216.71 76914.86 83720.71 84485.00 89765.00 87702.86 82013.86
## [302] 85982.43 57248.43 52968.43 52601.86 45493.29 42298.86 46423.71
## [309] 37898.00 36435.14 30209.57 34541.86 33604.71 37990.71 35683.43
## [316] 65201.86 62730.57 64589.14 73744.86 76477.71 105647.43 103790.29
## [323] 76122.29 74746.14 72865.71 63652.57 60358.29 25957.14 30178.43
## [330] 30681.57 33337.29 32582.71 39184.43 40415.71 34975.43 34076.14
## [337] 34221.14 28862.57 35729.86 36489.29 36785.14 37787.71 39832.14
## [344] 41917.86 41633.57 33557.00 22759.57 28877.86 27574.00 27104.71
## [351] 24376.14 29732.29 34030.00 39139.71 37066.57 38509.29 40957.29
## [358] 49423.00 50053.29 50284.14 53103.86 50223.00 49587.14 41167.71
## [365] 37958.71 33582.29 31039.43 26526.57 34869.43 37487.43 46514.43
## [372] 39613.43 38980.57 37306.14 36771.29 26317.00 31580.71 23626.57
## [379] 33035.71 44864.57 48946.14 46969.57 49249.57 56370.14 67228.71
## [386] 59457.29 53124.71 52814.14 61262.00 61861.14 71784.71 59313.29
## [393] 61107.00 60603.43 60012.57 58280.43 56862.71 41704.43 51533.00
## [400] 50388.71 49205.29 56533.29 47996.14 47207.57 45292.00 40343.43
## [407] 39004.86 36788.43 30027.57 39040.14 42390.14 36291.14 30668.29
## [414] 47693.00 52094.43 56592.57 47971.43 43762.43 42246.71 46352.43
## [421] 33094.86 32784.86 26212.43 32611.57 42144.86 50034.86 46332.00
## [428] 42976.29 39456.29 39328.29 35296.14 30875.43 27709.00 29513.29
## [435] 31630.43 29346.14 34916.86 42020.86 38303.00 37966.43 41408.14
## [442] 38988.14 43555.29 38114.00 27847.86 26517.00 39518.29 39153.71
## [449] 45623.14 40627.43 41027.71 42882.86 47139.43 35547.57 41099.00
## [456] 35859.57 44524.57 48554.29 51554.29 47810.29 50490.00 50720.71
## [463] 52720.71 52145.57 55515.57 52457.00 58239.57 50523.57 47788.57
## [470] 46170.00 42305.57 46605.57 55149.57 48769.57 50719.43 44753.71
## [477] 42898.00 46141.14 34022.57 26651.86 28791.86 31879.00 33584.71
## [484] 34690.43 27410.43 41755.00 49379.57 57198.86 51144.57 56677.43
## [491] 65416.43 69779.71 54046.00 43259.57 40998.57 41368.57 42274.29
## [498] 35962.71 38709.00 44778.14 51282.43 52094.86 52221.43 45011.43
## [505] 46545.43 42263.00 45417.43 45034.71 37840.57 39135.43 38191.14
## [512] 39456.86 42479.14 34282.57 28878.43 56227.14 65569.43 69751.29
## [519] 62171.71 63705.14 79257.86 87244.71 58568.00 52695.29 48911.00
## [526] 53924.00 53358.86 42121.14 47835.71 62329.29 56056.86 59946.43
## [533] 64511.57 61137.43 55448.71 47964.43 46425.71 55512.00 55226.29
## [540] 46709.14 49254.71 49056.29 49850.57 39145.71 29799.43 34769.86
## [547] 44061.57 43829.14 45782.00 38924.57 49242.43 50565.00 38864.43
## [554] 49786.71 58787.86 58060.86 62179.43 57333.86 70797.00 89901.71
## [561] 78558.14 65466.00 70525.00 68377.86 69736.29 60085.86 41757.00
## [568] 49780.29 56540.29 57894.29 60270.29 61011.00 57721.43 71741.00
## [575] 59576.00 52390.29 61092.29 62814.00 54908.29 62082.00 57017.71
## [582] 53634.43 69169.00 52488.14 60895.57 59856.57 52670.00 51874.57
## [589] 52190.57 41562.43 44764.14 38612.71 43473.14 53505.00 45870.86
## [596] 52578.00 55300.00 61789.71 57391.71 62902.29 53250.43 55402.57
## [603] 56291.29 58933.57 59590.71 59065.00 52399.57 60483.43 58262.71
## [610] 54939.71 51169.00 43113.29 56289.71 60739.86 50363.14 62270.86
## [617] 67061.57 59609.00 85054.00 68023.29 59242.29 61535.14 56215.86
## [624] 45152.29 57409.57 35151.43 34991.43 45944.71 57944.71 55706.29
## [631] 88593.71 77359.43 79878.71 81753.00 75716.00 67381.43 63528.57
## [638] 49682.86 47815.00 46546.14 44808.71 42959.57 46023.86 51309.57
## [645] 68447.29 84959.29 81666.29 82700.86 89422.14 104812.71 98812.71
## [652] 64779.86 61862.86 58376.43 59503.57 55429.43 44454.57 47184.00
## [659] 52126.71 51202.00 64437.14 64297.14 64628.57 51413.14 52969.43
## [666] 54135.29 48799.43 41907.86 45382.00 42633.29 46624.71 44051.86
## [673] 35852.86 29737.71 29734.86 32881.71 38298.57 40886.14 38601.86
## [680] 38628.86 39142.57 32666.14 39911.57 39336.29 39678.86 41963.14
## [687] 54220.57
##
## $interrupt_var
## [1] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
## [38] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
## [75] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
## [112] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
## [149] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## [186] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## [223] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## [260] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## [297] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## [334] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## [371] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## [408] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## [445] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## [482] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## [519] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## [556] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## [593] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## [630] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## [667] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## Levels: 0 1 2
##
## $residuals
## 2 3 4 5 6
## 1932.252885 4003.248749 -501.186898 2470.047537 -2896.693855
## 7 8 9 10 11
## 545.256947 -5616.869450 -1231.706886 -4014.607440 -512.592916
## 12 13 14 15 16
## -5020.827664 -1747.318151 -1036.755750 252.046133 -3338.796787
## 17 18 19 20 21
## -502.983276 -2237.183966 6486.191385 -1524.276454 -1219.306462
## 22 23 24 25 26
## 1455.553960 -1173.856193 235.685038 1707.385922 -7057.578827
## 27 28 29 30 31
## 886.689741 8161.631148 523.703279 92.601120 -2299.594823
## 32 33 34 35 36
## 1636.075043 4656.794129 1278.025420 2548.673347 -1686.231752
## 37 38 39 40 41
## 4746.505767 4385.490595 -2137.989767 -2894.916301 -1079.081794
## 42 43 44 45 46
## -10730.468724 7136.652084 2535.043847 1386.889880 8144.082356
## 47 48 49 50 51
## 843.802581 6677.616502 6944.212660 -5578.946689 -4618.865182
## 52 53 54 55 56
## -4977.485863 -7932.768580 6006.542153 -4090.684811 -4967.809677
## 57 58 59 60 61
## 3717.995538 826.531259 -71.578100 107.895624 -5023.630005
## 62 63 64 65 66
## 18027.870010 3829.859502 -3424.856811 6064.117942 7555.928924
## 67 68 69 70 71
## 14936.239244 2175.948451 -12764.348460 -1113.874194 4792.524789
## 72 73 74 75 76
## -4698.863478 -4302.029149 -10473.828078 2329.338459 -5481.640388
## 77 78 79 80 81
## 911.293166 -6982.546006 342.172114 -2524.378637 -2877.069332
## 82 83 84 85 86
## -4131.917981 -771.006507 2103.260013 3613.764825 404.386002
## 87 88 89 90 91
## -540.061834 141.404145 4257.311348 -1136.263224 1157.278320
## 92 93 94 95 96
## -2040.778158 -1054.164846 153.824433 257.376197 -7494.425859
## 97 98 99 100 101
## 2270.219613 -8671.775813 -3130.324418 -4248.787388 -1979.723899
## 102 103 104 105 106
## -1498.948917 2955.197758 -2490.441625 2429.733333 -1262.018613
## 107 108 109 110 111
## 863.149457 2508.710148 -3183.081088 -4795.076558 -983.815551
## 112 113 114 115 116
## 1774.737244 11610.517689 -1137.733177 2742.081170 4368.172273
## 117 118 119 120 121
## 3659.900356 -908.851041 -4565.204134 -3662.537677 2318.067475
## 122 123 124 125 126
## -1698.296560 1345.036912 8883.310653 1003.660948 280.825082
## 127 128 129 130 131
## -2387.124308 2734.943415 7163.215878 1216.528916 -8305.009954
## 132 133 134 135 136
## 1791.334858 4199.501926 -3044.803074 -1362.708401 -824.871219
## 137 138 139 140 141
## -3866.739731 1136.748624 -517.308620 -2939.431036 1652.301263
## 142 143 144 145 146
## -1911.938878 -7883.971475 1874.099601 -3592.678346 1951.621514
## 147 148 149 150 151
## -356.653628 933.124260 -421.754973 1292.840774 1155.848546
## 152 153 154 155 156
## 3348.258052 -4817.686035 -1208.720887 -3282.802682 5867.447512
## 157 158 159 160 161
## 9759.309930 -3566.208593 -4941.311174 3395.725214 73.380844
## 162 163 164 165 166
## 2599.089094 -5948.922705 -6864.072488 3959.242672 17287.976671
## 167 168 169 170 171
## 3795.744036 -194.134799 -2268.957403 -981.149210 3686.054499
## 172 173 174 175 176
## -87.632130 -7951.780488 2856.958670 4365.833282 728.385436
## 177 178 179 180 181
## 8853.382534 -9026.310199 -3409.664981 -10737.520253 -11387.887283
## 182 183 184 185 186
## 944.655085 9061.867408 -1492.218494 5856.786203 6581.850816
## 187 188 189 190 191
## 13278.304008 8726.422247 -3684.305736 2735.029838 10638.462605
## 192 193 194 195 196
## -1260.697849 -2135.934955 -10047.879448 -6308.800330 1189.798004
## 197 198 199 200 201
## -5253.093035 -9887.409794 5164.955998 -3179.489151 -1851.511566
## 202 203 204 205 206
## -948.074166 6359.017040 9856.448196 694.656691 3033.170131
## 207 208 209 210 211
## 3233.175196 5945.445399 13055.421740 -5312.841666 -11050.813315
## 212 213 214 215 216
## -5612.497908 -10619.863702 -5252.155141 1302.582368 -13182.179583
## 217 218 219 220 221
## 16057.625961 7753.550835 1589.905768 26763.511784 12965.623036
## 222 223 224 225 226
## 7891.444789 14612.344280 -3208.392429 -1183.603378 4237.153163
## 227 228 229 230 231
## 813.240868 3146.339996 9393.131853 6298.534333 -1412.352387
## 232 233 234 235 236
## -1422.472264 9754.887397 -11087.007752 -7078.287989 -8464.749029
## 237 238 239 240 241
## -10154.955895 2889.131911 1232.928833 -8380.273317 -9177.689119
## 242 243 244 245 246
## 8805.632395 -7887.362436 2273.015071 -10451.346284 -4328.455111
## 247 248 249 250 251
## 1127.919582 767.483665 -12506.009733 3305.708758 1820.391300
## 252 253 254 255 256
## 4030.308692 2035.757230 -1217.100117 11073.390811 20977.383662
## 257 258 259 260 261
## 3566.584780 -3909.046697 4362.601930 -1420.125742 3950.121588
## 262 263 264 265 266
## -4617.093863 -10758.706691 -4763.641375 -618.969670 -5281.524390
## 267 268 269 270 271
## 8623.700557 -4296.715651 4113.561476 -2118.520738 4388.816471
## 272 273 274 275 276
## 729.609585 7326.921813 -1296.128117 12102.186187 -4360.402142
## 277 278 279 280 281
## 1851.729760 -244.581168 7952.221637 -4869.668349 -2640.396238
## 282 283 284 285 286
## -11222.511882 -2788.101833 18513.983850 7905.756457 2938.590426
## 287 288 289 290 291
## -420.033043 1073.665133 6550.751603 7094.090927 -18503.245726
## 292 293 294 295 296
## -11153.961547 -8280.341877 9421.739269 2987.185651 -1213.701354
## 297 298 299 300 301
## 27355.399241 10377.117938 5297.277230 9920.992173 3324.962274
## 302 303 304 305 306
## -593.294775 8260.368203 -23881.407285 -3487.787915 -179.163029
## 307 308 309 310 311
## -6972.962971 -4063.327169 2804.556168 -9263.134699 -3405.040038
## 312 313 314 315 316
## -8374.469602 1303.656573 -3353.579857 1837.136025 -4236.367221
## 317 318 319 320 321
## 27263.306200 -555.180425 3425.461131 10985.237365 5856.167545
## 322 323 324 325 326
## 32679.202742 5774.296697 -20298.991951 2083.120246 1384.372786
## 327 328 329 330 331
## -6214.063493 -1597.108862 -33169.479122 591.748986 -2529.887058
## 332 333 334 335 336
## -306.216879 -3341.225540 3908.432235 -529.112895 -7026.692235
## 337 338 339 340 341
## -3254.455051 -2337.246746 -7820.328330 3648.312983 -1489.133013
## 342 343 344 345 346
## -1845.390142 -1096.868499 86.661283 416.843711 -1658.425521
## 347 348 349 350 351
## -9490.883443 -13353.035017 2036.902495 -4520.669861 -3870.345536
## 352 353 354 355 356
## -6195.945673 1503.196170 1201.640248 2620.947126 -3839.860010
## 357 358 359 360 361
## -616.957175 592.197445 6955.836829 316.692183 6.328827
## 362 363 364 365 366
## 2627.808225 -2674.311430 -836.403257 -8709.827195 -4689.141948
## 367 368 369 370 371
## -6310.031975 -5094.890483 -7424.219775 4793.785952 247.851881
## 372 373 374 375 376
## 7026.799556 -7625.601644 -2332.634074 -3463.634085 -2560.674940
## 377 378 379 380 381
## -12555.683785 1685.028709 -10789.016799 5450.274777 9199.588192
## 382 383 384 385 386
## 3123.829673 -2357.549296 1619.714262 6782.470832 11526.673599
## 387 388 389 390 391
## -5568.909575 -5228.227348 -101.078408 8613.463541 1958.509800
## 392 393 394 395 396
## 11367.602813 -9625.104530 2877.709831 833.892577 675.447551
## 397 398 399 400 401
## -549.331756 -479.671032 -14420.578634 8424.272185 -1159.716681
## 402 403 404 405 406
## -1360.557720 6983.641421 -7845.987089 -1303.793105 -2542.225559
## 407 408 409 410 411
## -5845.913564 -2935.192591 -4002.202289 -8859.832769 5958.224000
## 412 413 414 415 416
## 1569.212481 -7406.401457 -7792.103851 14060.905726 3843.369999
## 417 418 419 420 421
## 4562.046953 -7921.609468 -4727.714034 -2629.199047 2778.045042
## 422 423 424 425 426
## -14005.065174 -2930.911517 -9237.145962 2805.680368 6844.081445
## 427 428 429 430 431
## 6547.937398 -3929.989587 -4106.094778 -4744.574036 -1849.982674
## 432 433 434 435 436
## -5772.213118 -6730.563720 -6100.965924 -1577.697356 -1009.877912
## 437 438 439 440 441
## -5112.134567 2420.074681 4740.553978 -5077.442095 -2221.524068
## 442 443 444 445 446
## 1509.200983 -3866.167162 2779.007256 -6584.041682 -12177.802949
## 447 448 449 450 451
## -4693.218411 9450.861992 -2077.792928 4704.689749 -5846.262865
## 452 453 454 455 456
## -1156.203615 355.217611 3018.795069 -12228.140491 3277.108326
## 457 458 459 460 461
## -6729.280486 6434.768247 3023.927377 2563.649085 -3756.423098
## 462 463 464 465 466
## 2138.229272 67.897748 1869.785530 -422.738783 3441.131056
## 467 468 469 470 471
## -2511.228125 5897.710229 -6783.730239 -2893.072584 -2163.124872
## 472 473 474 475 476
## -4637.701166 2980.647816 7832.277687 -5884.375890 1543.928095
## 477 478 479 480 481
## -6096.110439 -2829.121184 2007.506324 -12895.921805 -9860.531172
## 482 483 484 485 486
## -1391.367158 -141.822458 -1087.009119 -1445.975874 -9675.442479
## 487 488 489 490 491
## 10920.397447 6227.418397 7499.555323 -5269.078532 5462.537617
## 492 493 494 495 496
## 9450.524491 6309.711936 -13170.715335 -10446.749337 -3445.543138
## 497 498 499 500 501
## -1134.043402 -546.044686 -7635.344574 530.629004 4241.561782
## 502 503 504 505 506
## 5534.330800 761.589538 190.536086 -7128.149627 597.010520
## 507 508 509 510 511
## -5002.649628 1829.060650 -1262.332201 -8127.841850 -655.440941
## 512 513 514 515 516
## -2711.608478 -635.044805 1300.383788 -9491.396360 -7857.219332
## 517 518 519 520 521
## 24131.982316 9990.180658 6149.903683 -5020.589699 3021.346578
## 522 523 524 525 526
## 17257.319968 11889.205563 -23645.748895 -4894.034522 -3635.474933
## 527 528 529 530 531
## 4627.056121 -242.703354 -10995.134709 4369.157778 13955.679708
## 532 533 534 535 536
## -4762.244261 4513.403422 5738.607359 -1555.581340 -4346.950441
## 537 538 539 540 541
## -6946.389945 -2058.417484 8349.147920 261.124342 -8010.678308
## 542 543 544 545 546
## 1848.484719 -535.802435 428.872054 -10958.030867 -11112.155011
## 547 548 549 550 551
## 1883.842442 6907.495800 -1303.641673 848.799729 -7685.529163
## 552 553 554 555 556
## 8520.738310 983.461480 -11852.789771 9116.668138 8738.945527
## 557 558 559 560 561
## 282.747616 5025.587204 -3356.563322 14267.426792 21811.465140
## 562 563 564 565 566
## -5937.147301 -9288.670554 7012.431124 521.171875 3723.332109
## 567 568 569 570 571
## -7093.566481 -17135.690091 6626.415301 6496.894253 2046.144933
## 572 573 574 575 576
## 3259.477688 1959.942805 -1965.673113 14878.622800 -9324.853193
## 577 578 579 580 581
## -6064.594776 8807.711453 3057.099027 -6327.035352 7635.242487
## 582 583 584 585 586
## -3589.045168 -2623.675697 15816.091804 -14204.157784 8526.968146
## 587 588 589 590 591
## 268.587188 -6025.804574 -650.190896 348.836243 -10550.652884
## 592 593 594 595 596
## 1777.349126 -7123.361816 3019.241432 8877.493628 -7370.911939
## 597 598 599 600 601
## 5891.598603 2854.237222 7006.595347 -2964.062135 6323.031114
## 602 603 604 605 606
## -8060.702619 2379.400472 1420.089641 3299.244639 1687.481253
## 607 608 609 610 611
## 597.484489 -5616.518100 8190.880754 -971.366705 -2387.459939
## 612 613 614 615 616
## -3304.744936 -8122.581828 11971.213906 5106.879724 -9091.130970
## 617 618 619 620 621
## 11726.971657 6292.642097 -5273.671267 26570.782716 -12309.317136
## 622 623 624 625 626
## -6466.200693 3366.819730 -3921.321153 -10417.271261 11340.200655
## 627 628 629 630 631
## -21443.159792 -2490.298905 8600.377326 11194.892445 -1347.824859
## 632 633 634 635 636
## 33461.721572 -6012.694115 6153.368574 5864.367005 -1782.064759
## 637 638 639 640 641
## -4932.720264 -1628.758202 -12166.059784 -2144.730451 -1809.675984
## 642 643 644 645 646
## -2457.548692 -2814.777745 1837.349795 4491.790351 17090.710790
## 647 648 649 650 651
## 18886.714438 1415.013142 5277.253137 11110.161959 20729.227666
## 652 653 654 655 656
## 1513.486686 -27367.226090 -1060.527224 -2042.154943 2078.751801
## 657 658 659 660 661
## -2963.258176 -10439.686624 1713.750014 4312.729293 -856.247919
## 662 663 664 665 666
## 13172.938521 1668.044070 2119.689343 -11380.333870 1523.917822
## 667 668 669 670 671
## 1353.406852 -4983.561009 -7293.281385 2098.589957 -3633.338587
## 672 673 674 675 676
## 2718.385455 -3281.874392 -9271.585820 -8346.323401 -3098.164073
## 677 678 679 680 681
## 51.146471 2765.826564 701.992991 -3804.216316 -1815.721354
## 682 683 684 685 686
## -1325.191718 -8242.741983 4563.935751 -2232.932296 -1396.368358
## 687 688
## 593.754447 10889.688056
##
## $fitted.values
## 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
## 17337.03 20135.75 24317.33 24040.10 26353.41 23731.46 24435.58 19748.85
## 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
## 19489.89 16877.88 17642.11 14427.18 14477.47 15130.81 16798.51 15147.13
## 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
## 16164.18 15548.38 22510.28 21609.88 21098.59 22956.43 22293.89 22935.33
## 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33
## 24749.86 18781.60 20478.37 28182.30 28238.97 27917.45 25587.21 26965.78
## 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41
## 30743.40 31085.90 32471.09 30024.07 34057.51 37210.99 34317.20 31182.37
## 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
## 30049.75 20789.63 28180.38 30575.40 31646.06 38367.77 37870.95 42453.79
## 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57
## 46617.95 39440.15 34101.06 29208.48 22469.60 28652.54 25291.38 21652.00
## 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65
## 25985.33 27223.44 27515.39 27920.20 23861.42 40170.28 41982.86 37309.74
## 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73
## 41445.07 46277.05 56763.62 54811.21 40305.59 37853.90 40820.43 35217.60
## 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81
## 30747.26 21608.95 24755.93 20750.99 22801.55 17783.97 19765.09 19004.78
## 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89
## 18049.06 16150.86 17406.88 20953.52 25296.04 26269.06 26293.60 26899.83
## 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
## 30954.69 29805.15 30787.49 28884.88 28098.32 28460.20 28859.85 22546.64
## 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105
## 25510.35 18659.47 17535.07 15609.15 15903.81 16569.66 20966.16 20065.27
## 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113
## 23516.59 23310.14 24957.72 27785.51 25326.22 21830.24 22100.98 24702.20
## 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121
## 35381.73 33605.35 35411.54 38358.81 40281.42 38009.20 32918.39 29322.08
## 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129
## 31369.44 29678.68 30840.12 38310.48 37959.03 37036.55 33953.49 35704.36
## 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137
## 41010.33 40460.15 31811.67 33054.93 36190.37 32662.14 31076.87 30177.45
## 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145
## 26793.11 28183.45 27957.00 25682.70 27672.65 26320.83 20031.90 23010.82
## 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153
## 20874.52 23800.94 24331.73 25895.04 26074.02 27700.01 28978.60 31959.11
## 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161
## 27506.44 26781.95 24378.84 30172.55 41586.64 39945.31 37355.13 42289.90
## 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169
## 43674.48 47032.21 42575.36 37962.47 43295.31 59319.83 61494.28 59935.39
## 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177
## 56815.15 55241.66 57898.20 56938.92 49362.33 52137.74 55816.61 55852.19
## 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185
## 62859.60 53523.66 50329.95 41295.17 32978.63 36427.13 46358.50 45823.79
## 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193
## 51675.15 57322.27 67921.58 73114.45 66916.54 67106.68 74056.55 69806.65
## 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201
## 65405.74 54832.80 48964.63 50364.66 46034.41 38336.62 44651.92 42909.51
## 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209
## 42553.65 43023.84 49702.12 58439.91 58075.83 59771.25 61398.84 65125.44
## 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217
## 74430.70 66648.38 55038.64 49739.29 40889.01 37898.56 40959.18 31149.37
## 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225
## 47833.73 55029.81 55916.35 78293.95 85661.27 87630.37 95092.39 86197.46
## 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233
## 80298.13 79887.19 76594.23 75770.01 80426.32 81767.35 76297.62 71592.11
## 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241
## 77149.44 64024.72 56196.89 48284.67 40039.15 44159.64 46275.70 39837.97
## 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249
## 33625.22 43732.51 38077.41 41946.06 34341.74 33069.65 36662.66 39438.44
## 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257
## 30424.15 36261.04 39997.69 45103.96 47775.96 47277.18 57402.62 74601.70
## 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265
## 74419.90 67844.54 69301.13 65586.31 67007.81 60871.85 50329.21 46424.26
## 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273
## 46630.10 42803.16 51457.29 47793.87 51869.95 50018.61 54016.68 54307.65
## 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281
## 60222.56 57897.10 67405.26 61433.56 61640.01 60017.21 65662.24 59499.54
## 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289
## 56121.94 45852.24 44276.30 61214.96 66650.84 67053.32 64514.91 63617.82
## 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297
## 67550.62 71394.25 52714.53 42985.20 37098.26 47243.81 50430.42 49559.46
## 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305
## 73343.60 79187.72 79844.01 84377.89 82607.15 77722.06 81129.84 56456.22
## 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313
## 52781.02 52466.25 46362.18 43619.16 47161.13 39840.18 38584.04 33238.20
## 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321
## 36958.29 36153.58 39919.80 37938.55 63285.75 61163.68 62759.62 70621.55
## 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329
## 72968.23 98015.99 96421.28 72663.02 71481.34 69866.63 61955.39 59126.62
## 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337
## 29586.68 33211.46 33643.50 35923.94 35276.00 40944.83 42002.12 37330.60
## 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 345
## 36558.39 36682.90 32081.54 37978.42 38630.53 38884.58 39745.48 41501.01
## 346 347 348 349 350 351 352 353
## 43292.00 43047.88 36112.61 26840.95 32094.67 30975.06 30572.09 28229.09
## 354 355 356 357 358 359 360 361
## 32828.36 36518.77 40906.43 39126.24 40365.09 42467.16 49736.59 50277.81
## 362 363 364 365 366 367 368 369
## 50476.05 52897.31 50423.55 49877.54 42647.86 39892.32 36134.32 33950.79
## 370 371 372 373 374 375 376 377
## 30075.64 37239.58 39487.63 47239.03 41313.21 40769.78 39331.96 38872.68
## 378 379 380 381 382 383 384 385
## 29895.69 34415.59 27585.44 35664.98 45822.31 49327.12 47629.86 49587.67
## 386 387 388 389 390 391 392 393
## 55702.04 65026.20 58352.94 52915.22 52648.54 59902.63 60417.11 68938.39
## 394 395 396 397 398 399 400 401
## 58229.29 59769.54 59337.12 58829.76 57342.39 56125.01 43108.73 51548.43
## 402 403 404 405 406 407 408 409
## 50565.84 49549.64 55842.13 48511.36 47834.23 46189.34 41940.05 40790.63
## 410 411 412 413 414 415 416 417
## 38887.40 33081.92 40820.93 43697.54 38460.39 33632.09 48251.06 52030.52
## 418 419 420 421 422 423 424 425
## 55893.04 48490.14 44875.91 43574.38 47099.92 35715.77 35449.57 29805.89
## 426 427 428 429 430 431 432 433
## 35300.78 43486.92 50261.99 47082.38 44200.86 41178.27 41068.36 37605.99
## 434 435 436 437 438 439 440 441
## 33809.97 31090.98 32640.31 34458.28 32496.78 37280.30 43380.44 40187.95
## 442 443 444 445 446 447 448 449
## 39898.94 42854.31 40776.28 44698.04 40025.66 31210.22 30067.42 41231.51
## 450 451 452 453 454 455 456 457
## 40918.45 46473.69 42183.92 42527.64 44120.63 47775.71 37821.89 42588.85
## 458 459 460 461 462 463 464 465
## 38089.80 45530.36 48990.64 51566.71 48351.77 50652.82 50850.93 52568.31
## 466 467 468 469 470 471 472 473
## 52074.44 54968.23 52341.86 57307.30 50681.64 48333.12 46943.27 43624.92
## 474 475 476 477 478 479 480 481
## 47317.29 54653.95 49175.50 50849.82 45727.12 44133.64 46918.49 36512.39
## 482 483 484 485 486 487 488 489
## 30183.22 32020.82 34671.72 36136.40 37085.87 30834.60 43152.15 49699.30
## 490 491 492 493 494 495 496 497
## 56413.65 51214.89 55965.90 63470.00 67216.72 53706.32 44444.11 42502.61
## 498 499 500 501 502 503 504 505
## 42820.33 43598.06 38178.37 40536.58 45748.10 51333.27 52030.89 52139.58
## 506 507 508 509 510 511 512 513
## 45948.42 47265.65 43588.37 46297.05 45968.41 39790.87 40902.75 40091.90
## 514 515 516 517 518 519 520 521
## 41178.76 43773.97 36735.65 32095.16 55579.25 63601.38 67192.30 60683.80
## 522 523 524 525 526 527 528 529
## 62000.54 75355.51 82213.75 57589.32 52546.47 49296.94 53601.56 53116.28
## 530 531 532 533 534 535 536 537
## 43466.56 48373.61 60819.10 55433.03 58772.96 62693.01 59795.66 54910.82
## 538 539 540 541 542 543 544 545
## 48484.13 47162.85 54965.16 54719.82 47406.23 49592.09 49421.70 50103.75
## 546 547 548 549 550 551 552 553
## 40911.58 32886.01 37154.08 45132.78 44933.20 46610.10 40721.69 49581.54
## 554 555 556 557 558 559 560 561
## 50717.22 40670.05 50048.91 57778.11 57153.84 60690.42 56529.57 68090.25
## 562 563 564 565 566 567 568 569
## 84495.29 74754.67 63512.57 67856.69 66012.95 67179.42 58892.69 43153.87
## 570 571 572 573 574 575 576 577
## 50043.39 55848.14 57010.81 59051.06 59687.10 56862.38 68900.85 58454.88
## 578 579 580 581 582 583 584 585
## 52284.57 59756.90 61235.32 54446.76 60606.76 56258.10 53352.91 66692.30
## 586 587 588 589 590 591 592 593
## 52368.60 59587.98 58695.80 52524.76 51841.74 52113.08 42986.79 45736.08
## 594 595 596 597 598 599 600 601
## 40453.90 44627.51 53241.77 46686.40 52445.76 54783.12 60355.78 56579.25
## 602 603 604 605 606 607 608 609
## 61311.13 53023.17 54871.20 55634.33 57903.23 58467.52 58016.09 52292.55
## 610 611 612 613 614 615 616 617
## 59234.08 57327.17 54473.74 51235.87 44318.50 55632.98 59454.27 50543.89
## 618 619 620 621 622 623 624 625
## 60768.93 64882.67 58483.22 80332.60 65708.49 58168.32 60137.18 55569.56
## 626 627 628 629 630 631 632 633
## 46069.37 56594.59 37481.73 37344.34 46749.82 57054.11 55131.99 83372.12
## 634 635 636 637 638 639 640 641
## 73725.35 75888.63 77498.06 72314.15 65157.33 61848.92 49959.73 48355.82
## 642 643 644 645 646 647 648 649
## 47266.26 45774.35 44186.51 46817.78 51356.57 66072.57 80251.27 77423.60
## 650 651 652 653 654 655 656 657
## 78311.98 84083.49 97299.23 92147.08 62923.38 60418.58 57424.82 58392.69
## 658 659 660 661 662 663 664 665
## 54894.26 45470.25 47813.98 52058.25 51264.20 62629.10 62508.88 62793.48
## 666 667 668 669 670 671 672 673
## 51445.51 52781.88 53782.99 49201.14 43283.41 46266.62 43906.33 47333.73
## 674 675 676 677 678 679 680 681
## 45124.44 38084.04 32833.02 32830.57 35532.74 40184.15 42406.07 40444.58
## 682 683 684 685 686 687 688
## 40467.76 40908.88 35347.64 41569.22 41075.23 41369.39 43330.88
##
## $shapiro.test
## [1] 0
##
## $levenes.test
## [1] 0
##
## $autcorr
## [1] "No autocorrelation evidence"
##
## $post_sums
## [1] "Post-Est Warning"
##
## $adjr_sq
## [1] 0.8248
##
## $fstat.bootstrap
##
## ORDINARY NONPARAMETRIC BOOTSTRAP
##
##
## Call:
## boot::boot(data = x, statistic = f.stat, R = Reps, formula = depvar ~
## ., parallel = parr)
##
##
## Bootstrap Statistics :
## original bias std. error
## t1* 8.048279 0.5063939 3.533254
## t2* 1912.891401 23.8047965 225.585604
## WARNING: All values of t3* are NA
##
## $itsa.plot
##
## $booted.ints
## Parameter Lower CI Median F-value Upper CI
## 1 interrupt_var 3.488815 8.176665 14.91393
## 2 lag_depvar 1584.743238 1926.723285 2331.98718
Ahora con las tendencias descompuestas
require(zoo)
require(scales)
Gastos_casa %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha= lubridate::parse_date_time(fecha, c("%d/%m/%Y"),exact=T)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha2=strftime(fecha, format = "%Y-W%V")) %>%
dplyr::mutate(gastador=ifelse(gastador=="Andrés",1,0)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(treat=ifelse(fecha2>"2019-W26",1,0)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(gasto= dplyr::case_when(gasto=="Gas"~"Gas/Bencina",
gasto=="aspiradora"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Plata fiestas patrias basureros"~"donaciones/regalos",
gasto=="Tina"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Nexium"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="donaciones"~"donaciones/regalos",
gasto=="Regalo chocolates"~"donaciones/regalos",
gasto=="filtro piscina msp"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Chromecast"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Muebles ratan"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Vacuna Influenza"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Easy"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Sopapo"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="filtro agua"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="ropa tami"~"donaciones/regalos",
gasto=="yaz"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Yaz"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Remedio"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Entel"~"VTR",
gasto=="Kerosen"~"Gas/Bencina",
gasto=="Parafina"~"Gas/Bencina",
gasto=="Plata basurero"~"donaciones/regalos",
gasto=="Matri Andrés Kogan"~"donaciones/regalos",
gasto=="Wild Protein"~"Comida",
gasto=="Granola Wild Foods"~"Comida",
gasto=="uber"~"Transporte",
gasto=="Uber Reñaca"~"Transporte",
gasto=="filtro piscina mspa"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Limpieza Alfombra"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Aspiradora"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Limpieza alfombras"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Pila estufa"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Reloj"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Arreglo"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Pan Pepperino"~"Comida",
gasto=="Cookidoo"~"Comida",
gasto=="remedios"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Bendina Reñaca"~"Gas/Bencina",
gasto=="Bencina Reñaca"~"Gas/Bencina",
gasto=="Vacunas Influenza"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Remedios"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Plata fiestas patrias basureros"~"donaciones/regalos",
T~gasto)) %>%
dplyr::group_by(gastador, fecha,gasto, .drop=F) %>%
#dplyr::mutate(fecha_simp=week(parse_date(fecha))) %>%
# dplyr::mutate(fecha_simp=tsibble::yearweek(fecha)) %>%#después de diosi. Junio 24, 2019
dplyr::summarise(monto=sum(monto)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(gastador_nombre=plyr::revalue(as.character(gastador), c("0" = "Tami", "1"="Andrés"))) %>%
ggplot2::ggplot(aes(x = fecha, y = monto, color=as.factor(gastador_nombre))) +
#stat_summary(geom = "line", fun.y = median, size = 1, alpha=0.5, aes(color="blue")) +
geom_line(size=1) +
facet_grid(gasto~.)+
#geom_text(aes(x = fech_ing_qrt, y = perc_dup-0.05, label = paste0(n)), vjust = -1,hjust = 0, angle=45, size=3) +
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2019-06-24"),linetype = "dashed") +
labs(y="Gastos (en miles)",x="Semanas y Meses", subtitle="Interlineado, incorporación de la Diosi; Azul= Tami; Rojo= Andrés") +
ggtitle( "Figura 6. Gastos Semanales por Gastador e ítem (media)") +
scale_y_continuous(labels = f <- function(x) paste0(x/1000)) +
scale_color_manual(name = "Gastador", values= c("blue", "red"), labels = c("Tami", "Andrés")) +
scale_x_yearweek(breaks = "1 month", minor_breaks = "1 week", labels=date_format("%m/%y")) +
guides(color = F)+
theme_custom() +
theme(axis.text.x = element_text(vjust = 0.5,angle = 35)) +
theme(
panel.border = element_blank(),
panel.grid.major = element_blank(),
panel.grid.minor = element_blank(),
axis.line = element_line(colour = "black")
)
autoplot(forecast::mstl(Gastos_casa$monto, lambda = "auto",iterate=5000000,start =
lubridate::decimal_date(as.Date("2019-03-03"))))
# scale_x_continuous(breaks = seq(0,400,by=30))
msts <- forecast::msts(Gastos_casa$monto,seasonal.periods = c(7,30.5,365.25),start =
lubridate::decimal_date(as.Date("2019-03-03")))
#tbats <- forecast::tbats(msts,use.trend = FALSE)
#plot(tbats, main="Multiple Season Decomposition")
library(bsts)
library(CausalImpact)
ts_week_covid<-
Gastos_casa %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha= lubridate::parse_date_time(fecha, c("%d/%m/%Y"),exact=T)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha_week=strftime(fecha, format = "%Y-W%V")) %>%
dplyr::mutate(day=as.Date(as.character(lubridate::floor_date(fecha, "day"))))%>%
dplyr::group_by(fecha_week)%>%
dplyr::summarise(gasto_total=sum(monto,na.rm=T)/1000,min_day=min(day))%>%
dplyr::ungroup() %>%
dplyr::mutate(covid=dplyr::case_when(min_day>=as.Date("2020-03-17")~1,TRUE~0))%>%
dplyr::mutate(covid=as.factor(covid))%>%
data.frame()
ts_week_covid$gasto_total_na<-ts_week_covid$gasto_total
post_resp<-ts_week_covid$gasto_total[which(ts_week_covid$covid==1)]
ts_week_covid$gasto_total_na[which(ts_week_covid$covid==1)]<-NA
ts_week_covid$gasto_total[which(ts_week_covid$covid==0)]
## [1] 98.357 4.780 56.784 50.506 64.483 67.248 49.299 35.786 58.503
## [10] 64.083 20.148 73.476 127.004 81.551 69.599 134.446 58.936 26.145
## [19] 129.927 104.989 130.860 81.893 95.697 64.579 303.471 151.106 49.275
## [28] 76.293 33.940 83.071 119.512 20.942 58.055 71.728 44.090 33.740
## [37] 59.264 77.410 60.831 63.376 48.754 235.284 29.604 115.143 72.419
## [46] 5.980 80.063 149.178 69.918 107.601 72.724 63.203 99.681 130.309
## [55] 195.898 112.066
# Model 1
ssd <- list()
# Local trend, weekly-seasonal #https://qastack.mx/stats/209426/predictions-from-bsts-model-in-r-are-failing-completely - PUSE UN GENERALIZED LOCAL TREND
ssd <- AddLocalLevel(ssd, ts_week_covid$gasto_total_na) #AddSemilocalLinearTrend #AddLocalLevel
# Add weekly seasonal
ssd <- AddSeasonal(ssd, ts_week_covid$gasto_total_na,nseasons=5, season.duration = 52) #weeks OJO, ESTOS NO SON WEEKS VERDADEROS. PORQUE TENGO MAS DE EUN AÑO
ssd <- AddSeasonal(ssd, ts_week_covid$gasto_total_na, nseasons = 12, season.duration =4) #years
# For example, to add a day-of-week component to data with daily granularity, use model.args = list(nseasons = 7, season.duration = 1). To add a day-of-week component to data with hourly granularity, set model.args = list(nseasons = 7, season.duration = 24).
model1d1 <- bsts(ts_week_covid$gasto_total_na,
state.specification = ssd, #A list with elements created by AddLocalLinearTrend, AddSeasonal, and similar functions for adding components of state. See the help page for state.specification.
family ="student", #A Bayesian Analysis of Time-Series Event Count Data. POISSON NO SE PUEDE OCUPAR
niter = 20000,
#burn = 200, #http://finzi.psych.upenn.edu/library/bsts/html/SuggestBurn.html Suggest the size of an MCMC burn in sample as a proportion of the total run.
seed= 2125)
## =-=-=-=-= Iteration 0 Mon Mar 25 02:22:07 2024
## =-=-=-=-=
## =-=-=-=-= Iteration 2000 Mon Mar 25 02:22:14 2024
## =-=-=-=-=
## =-=-=-=-= Iteration 4000 Mon Mar 25 02:22:21 2024
## =-=-=-=-=
## =-=-=-=-= Iteration 6000 Mon Mar 25 02:22:28 2024
## =-=-=-=-=
## =-=-=-=-= Iteration 8000 Mon Mar 25 02:22:35 2024
## =-=-=-=-=
## =-=-=-=-= Iteration 10000 Mon Mar 25 02:22:42 2024
## =-=-=-=-=
## =-=-=-=-= Iteration 12000 Mon Mar 25 02:22:49 2024
## =-=-=-=-=
## =-=-=-=-= Iteration 14000 Mon Mar 25 02:22:56 2024
## =-=-=-=-=
## =-=-=-=-= Iteration 16000 Mon Mar 25 02:23:02 2024
## =-=-=-=-=
## =-=-=-=-= Iteration 18000 Mon Mar 25 02:23:09 2024
## =-=-=-=-=
#,
# dynamic.regression=T)
#plot(model1d1, main = "Model 1")
#plot(model1d1, "components")
impact2d1 <- CausalImpact(bsts.model = model1d1,
post.period.response = post_resp)
plot(impact2d1)+
xlab("Date")+
ylab("Monto Semanal (En miles)")
burn1d1 <- SuggestBurn(0.1, model1d1)
corpus <- Corpus(VectorSource(Gastos_casa$obs)) # formato de texto
d <- tm_map(corpus, tolower)
d <- tm_map(d, stripWhitespace)
d <- tm_map(d, removePunctuation)
d <- tm_map(d, removeNumbers)
d <- tm_map(d, removeWords, stopwords("spanish"))
d <- tm_map(d, removeWords, "menos")
tdm <- TermDocumentMatrix(d)
m <- as.matrix(tdm) #lo vuelve una matriz
v <- sort(rowSums(m),decreasing=TRUE) #lo ordena y suma
df <- data.frame(word = names(v),freq=v) # lo nombra y le da formato de data.frame
#findFreqTerms(tdm)
#require(devtools)
#install_github("lchiffon/wordcloud2")
#wordcloud2::wordcloud2(v, size=1.2)
wordcloud(words = df$word, freq = df$freq,
max.words=100, random.order=FALSE, rot.per=0.35,
colors=brewer.pal(8, "Dark2"), main="Figura 7. Nube de Palabras, Observaciones")
fit_month_gasto <- Gastos_casa %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha= lubridate::parse_date_time(fecha, c("%d/%m/%Y"),exact=T)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha_month=strftime(fecha, format = "%Y-%m")) %>%
dplyr::mutate(day=as.Date(as.character(lubridate::floor_date(fecha, "day"))))%>%
dplyr::mutate(gasto2= dplyr::case_when(gasto=="Gas"~"Gas/Bencina",
gasto=="aspiradora"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Plata fiestas patrias basureros"~"donaciones/regalos",
gasto=="Tina"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="Nexium"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="donaciones"~"donaciones/regalos",
gasto=="Regalo chocolates"~"donaciones/regalos",
gasto=="filtro piscina msp"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="Chromecast"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="Muebles ratan"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="Vacuna Influenza"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Easy"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="Sopapo"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="filtro agua"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="ropa tami"~"donaciones/regalos",
gasto=="yaz"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Yaz"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Remedio"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Entel"~"VTR",
gasto=="Kerosen"~"Gas/Bencina",
gasto=="Parafina"~"Gas/Bencina",
gasto=="Plata basurero"~"donaciones/regalos",
gasto=="Matri Andrés Kogan"~"donaciones/regalos",
gasto=="Wild Protein"~"Comida",
gasto=="Granola Wild Foods"~"Comida",
gasto=="uber"~"Otros",
gasto=="Uber Reñaca"~"Otros",
gasto=="filtro piscina mspa"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="Limpieza Alfombra"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="Aspiradora"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="Limpieza alfombras"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="Pila estufa"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="Reloj"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="Arreglo"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="Pan Pepperino"~"Comida",
gasto=="Cookidoo"~"Comida",
gasto=="remedios"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Bendina Reñaca"~"Gas/Bencina",
gasto=="Bencina Reñaca"~"Gas/Bencina",
gasto=="Vacunas Influenza"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Remedios"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Plata fiestas patrias basureros"~"donaciones/regalos",
T~gasto)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha_month=factor(fecha_month, levels=format(seq(from = as.Date("2019-03-03"), to = as.Date(substr(Sys.time(),1,10)), by = "1 month"),"%Y-%m")))%>%
dplyr::mutate(gasto2=factor(gasto2, levels=c("Agua", "Comida", "Comunicaciones","Electricidad", "Enceres", "Farmacia", "Gas/Bencina", "Diosi", "donaciones/regalos", "Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa", "VTR", "Netflix", "Otros")))%>%
dplyr::group_by(fecha_month, gasto2, .drop=F)%>%
dplyr::summarise(gasto_total=sum(monto, na.rm = T)/1000)%>%
data.frame() %>% na.omit()
fit_month_gasto_24<-
fit_month_gasto %>%
#dplyr::filter()
dplyr::filter(grepl("2024",fecha_month)) %>%
#sacar el ultimo mes
dplyr::filter(as.character(format(as.Date(substr(Sys.time(),1,10)),"%Y-%m"))!=fecha_month) %>%
dplyr::group_by(gasto2) %>%
dplyr::summarise(gasto_prom=mean(gasto_total, na.rm=T)) %>%
data.frame()%>% ungroup()
fit_month_gasto_23<-
fit_month_gasto %>%
#dplyr::filter()
dplyr::filter(grepl("2023",fecha_month)) %>%
dplyr::group_by(gasto2) %>%
dplyr::summarise(gasto_prom=mean(gasto_total, na.rm=T)) %>%
data.frame()%>% ungroup()
fit_month_gasto_22<-
fit_month_gasto %>%
#dplyr::filter()
dplyr::filter(grepl("2022",fecha_month)) %>%
dplyr::group_by(gasto2) %>%
dplyr::summarise(gasto_prom=mean(gasto_total, na.rm=T)) %>%
data.frame()%>% ungroup()
fit_month_gasto_21<-
fit_month_gasto %>%
#dplyr::filter()
dplyr::filter(grepl("2021",fecha_month)) %>%
dplyr::group_by(gasto2) %>%
dplyr::summarise(gasto_prom=mean(gasto_total, na.rm=T)) %>%
data.frame()%>% ungroup()
fit_month_gasto_20<-
fit_month_gasto %>%
#dplyr::filter()
dplyr::filter(grepl("202",fecha_month)) %>%
dplyr::group_by(gasto2) %>%
dplyr::summarise(gasto_prom=mean(gasto_total, na.rm=T)) %>%
data.frame() %>% ungroup()
fit_month_gasto_24 %>%
dplyr::right_join(fit_month_gasto_23,by="gasto2") %>%
dplyr::right_join(fit_month_gasto_22,by="gasto2") %>%
dplyr::right_join(fit_month_gasto_21,by="gasto2") %>%
dplyr::right_join(fit_month_gasto_20,by="gasto2") %>%
janitor::adorn_totals() %>%
#dplyr::select(-3)%>%
knitr::kable(format = "markdown", size=12, col.names= c("Item","2024","2023","2022","2021","2020"))
| Item | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agua | 0.0000 | 5.195333 | 5.410333 | 5.849167 | 6.5345098 |
| Comida | 229.6570 | 366.009167 | 310.278417 | 317.896583 | 341.4233333 |
| Comunicaciones | 0.0000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.0000000 |
| Electricidad | 83.7810 | 38.104750 | 47.072333 | 29.523000 | 35.1219216 |
| Enceres | 55.1865 | 18.259750 | 20.086417 | 14.801167 | 23.9398039 |
| Farmacia | 0.0000 | 4.733250 | 1.831667 | 13.996083 | 8.1406471 |
| Gas/Bencina | 35.4985 | 35.219333 | 44.325000 | 13.583667 | 27.3653529 |
| Diosi | 0.0000 | 55.804250 | 31.180667 | 52.687833 | 43.3250980 |
| donaciones/regalos | 0.0000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 14.340167 | 5.3866471 |
| Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa | 30.0000 | 0.000000 | 3.944000 | 56.595000 | 17.4405490 |
| VTR | 21.9900 | 12.829167 | 25.156667 | 19.086917 | 19.2197647 |
| Netflix | 8.3485 | 4.555500 | 7.151583 | 7.028750 | 6.6763529 |
| Otros | 0.0000 | 0.000000 | 3.151083 | 0.000000 | 0.7414314 |
| Total | 464.4615 | 540.710500 | 499.588167 | 545.388333 | 535.3154118 |
## Joining with `by = join_by(word)`
Saqué la UF proyectada
#options(max.print=5000)
uf18 <-rvest::read_html("https://www.sii.cl/valores_y_fechas/uf/uf2018.htm")%>% rvest::html_nodes("table")
uf19 <-rvest::read_html("https://www.sii.cl/valores_y_fechas/uf/uf2019.htm")%>% rvest::html_nodes("table")
uf20 <-rvest::read_html("https://www.sii.cl/valores_y_fechas/uf/uf2020.htm")%>% rvest::html_nodes("table")
uf21 <-rvest::read_html("https://www.sii.cl/valores_y_fechas/uf/uf2021.htm")%>% rvest::html_nodes("table")
uf22 <-rvest::read_html("https://www.sii.cl/valores_y_fechas/uf/uf2022.htm")%>% rvest::html_nodes("table")
uf23 <-rvest::read_html("https://www.sii.cl/valores_y_fechas/uf/uf2023.htm")%>% rvest::html_nodes("table")
tryCatch(uf24 <-rvest::read_html("https://www.sii.cl/valores_y_fechas/uf/uf2024.htm")%>% rvest::html_nodes("table"),
error = function(c) {
uf24b <<- cbind.data.frame(Día=NA, variable=NA, value=NA)
}
)
tryCatch(uf24 <-uf24[[length(uf24)]] %>% rvest::html_table() %>% data.frame() %>% reshape2::melt(id.vars=1),
error = function(c) {
uf24 <<- cbind.data.frame(Día=NA, variable=NA, value=NA)
}
)
uf_serie<-
bind_rows(
cbind.data.frame(anio= 2018, uf18[[length(uf18)]] %>% rvest::html_table() %>% data.frame() %>% reshape2::melt(id.vars=1)),
cbind.data.frame(anio= 2019, uf19[[length(uf19)]] %>% rvest::html_table() %>% data.frame() %>% reshape2::melt(id.vars=1)),
cbind.data.frame(anio= 2020, uf20[[length(uf20)]] %>% rvest::html_table() %>% data.frame() %>% reshape2::melt(id.vars=1)),
cbind.data.frame(anio= 2021, uf21[[length(uf21)]] %>% rvest::html_table() %>% data.frame() %>% reshape2::melt(id.vars=1)),
cbind.data.frame(anio= 2022, uf22[[length(uf22)]] %>% rvest::html_table() %>% data.frame() %>% reshape2::melt(id.vars=1)),
cbind.data.frame(anio= 2023, uf23[[length(uf23)]] %>% rvest::html_table() %>% data.frame() %>% reshape2::melt(id.vars=1)),
cbind.data.frame(anio= 2024, uf24)
)
uf_serie_corrected<-
uf_serie %>%
dplyr::mutate(month=plyr::revalue(tolower(.[[3]]),c("ene" = 1, "feb"=2, "mar"=3, "abr"=4, "may"=5, "jun"=6, "jul"=7, "ago"=8, "sep"=9, "oct"=10, "nov"=11, "dic"=12))) %>%
dplyr::mutate(value=stringr::str_trim(value), value= sub("\\.","",value),value= as.numeric(sub("\\,",".",value))) %>%
dplyr::mutate(date=paste0(sprintf("%02d", .[[2]])," ",sprintf("%02d",as.numeric(month)),", ",.[[1]]), date3=lubridate::parse_date_time(date,c("%d %m, %Y"),exact=T),date2=date3) %>%
na.omit()#%>% dplyr::filter(is.na(date3))
## Warning: There was 1 warning in `dplyr::mutate()`.
## i In argument: `date3 = lubridate::parse_date_time(date, c("%d %m, %Y"), exact
## = T)`.
## Caused by warning:
## ! 47 failed to parse.
#Day of the month as decimal number (1–31), with a leading space for a single-digit number.
#Abbreviated month name in the current locale on this platform. (Also matches full name on input: in some locales there are no abbreviations of names.)
warning(paste0("number of observations:",nrow(uf_serie_corrected),", min uf: ",min(uf_serie_corrected$value),", min date: ",min(uf_serie_corrected $date3 )))
## Warning: number of observations:2291, min uf: 26799.01, min date: 2018-01-01
#
# uf_proyectado <- readxl::read_excel("uf_proyectado.xlsx") %>% dplyr::arrange(Período) %>%
# dplyr::mutate(Período= as.Date(lubridate::parse_date_time(Período, c("%Y-%m-%d"),exact=T)))
ts_uf_proy<-
ts(data = uf_serie_corrected$value,
start = as.numeric(as.Date("2018-01-01")),
end = as.numeric(as.Date(uf_serie_corrected$date3[length(uf_serie_corrected$date3)])), frequency = 1,
deltat = 1, ts.eps = getOption("ts.eps"))
fit_tbats <- forecast::tbats(ts_uf_proy)
fr_fit_tbats<-forecast::forecast(fit_tbats, h=298)
La proyección de la UF a 298 días más 2024-04-09 00:04:58 sería de: 37.761 pesos// Percentil 95% más alto proyectado: 40.872,77
Ahora con un modelo ARIMA automático
arima_optimal_uf = forecast::auto.arima(ts_uf_proy)
autoplotly::autoplotly(forecast::forecast(arima_optimal_uf, h=298), ts.colour = "darkred",
predict.colour = "blue", predict.linetype = "dashed")%>%
plotly::layout(showlegend = F,
yaxis = list(title = "Gastos"),
xaxis = list(
title="Fecha",
ticktext = as.list(seq(from = as.Date("2018-01-01"),
to = as.Date("2018-01-01")+length(fit_tbats$fitted.values)+298, by = 90)),
tickvals = as.list(seq(from = as.numeric(as.Date("2018-01-01")),
to = as.numeric(as.Date("2018-01-01"))+length(fit_tbats$fitted.values)+298, by = 90)),
tickmode = "array",
tickangle = 90
))
fr_fit_tbats_uf<-forecast::forecast(arima_optimal_uf, h=298)
dplyr::group_by(reshape2::melt(data.frame(fr_fit_tbats)),variable) %>% dplyr::summarise(max=max(value)) %>%
dplyr::right_join(dplyr::group_by(reshape2::melt(data.frame(fr_fit_tbats_uf)),variable) %>% dplyr::summarise(max=max(value)),by="variable") %>%
dplyr::mutate(variable=factor(variable,levels=c("Lo.95","Lo.80","Point.Forecast","Hi.80","Hi.95"))) %>%
dplyr::arrange(variable) %>%
knitr::kable(format="markdown", caption="Tabla. Estimación UF (de aquí a 298 días) según cálculos de gastos mensuales",
col.names= c("Item","UF Proyectada (TBATS)","UF Proyectada (ARIMA)"))
## No id variables; using all as measure variables
## No id variables; using all as measure variables
| Item | UF Proyectada (TBATS) | UF Proyectada (ARIMA) |
|---|---|---|
| Lo.95 | 37183.29 | 37180.57 |
| Lo.80 | 37214.14 | 37215.55 |
| Point.Forecast | 37760.78 | 39294.66 |
| Hi.80 | 39520.43 | 44169.68 |
| Hi.95 | 40484.89 | 46750.36 |
Lo haré en base a 2 cálculos: el gasto semanal y el gasto mensual en base a mis gastos desde marzo de 2019. La primera proyección la hice añadiendo el precio del arriendo mensual y partiendo en 2 (porque es con yo y Tami). No se incluye el último mes.
Gastos_casa_nvo <- readr::read_csv(as.character(path_sec),
col_names = c("Tiempo", "gasto", "fecha", "obs", "monto", "gastador",
"link"),skip=1) %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha= lubridate::parse_date_time(fecha, c("%d/%m/%Y"),exact=T)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha_month=strftime(fecha, format = "%Y-%m")) %>%
dplyr::mutate(day=as.Date(as.character(lubridate::floor_date(fecha, "day"))))
Gastos_casa_m <-
Gastos_casa_nvo %>% dplyr::group_by(fecha_month)%>%
dplyr::summarise(gasto_total=(sum(monto)+500000)/1000,fecha=first(fecha))%>%
data.frame()
uf_serie_corrected_m <-
uf_serie_corrected %>% dplyr::mutate(ano_m=paste0(anio,"-",sprintf("%02d",as.numeric(month)))) %>% dplyr::group_by(ano_m)%>%
dplyr::summarise(uf=(mean(value))/1000,fecha=first(date3))%>%
data.frame() %>%
dplyr::filter(fecha>="2019-02-28")
#Error: Error in standardise_path(file) : object 'enlace_gastos' not found
ts_uf_serie_corrected_m<-
ts(data = uf_serie_corrected_m$uf[-length(uf_serie_corrected_m$uf)],
start = 1,
end = nrow(uf_serie_corrected_m),
frequency = 1,
deltat = 1, ts.eps = getOption("ts.eps"))
ts_gastos_casa_m<-
ts(data = Gastos_casa_m$gasto_total[-length(Gastos_casa_m$gasto_total)],
start = 1,
end = nrow(Gastos_casa_m),
frequency = 1,
deltat = 1, ts.eps = getOption("ts.eps"))
fit_tbats_m <- forecast::tbats(ts_gastos_casa_m)
seq_dates<-format(seq(as.Date("2019/03/01"), by = "month", length = dim(Gastos_casa_m)[1]+12), "%m\n'%y")
autplo2t<-
autoplotly::autoplotly(forecast::forecast(fit_tbats_m, h=12), ts.colour = "darkred",
predict.colour = "blue", predict.linetype = "dashed")%>%
plotly::layout(showlegend = F,
yaxis = list(title = "Gastos (en miles)"),
xaxis = list(
title="Fecha",
ticktext = as.list(seq_dates[seq(from = 1, to = (dim(Gastos_casa_m)[1]+12), by = 3)]),
tickvals = as.list(seq(from = 1, to = (dim(Gastos_casa_m)[1]+12), by = 3)),
tickmode = "array"#"array"
))
autplo2t
Ahora asumiendo un modelo ARIMA, e incluimos como regresor al precio de la UF.
paste0("Optimo pero sin regresor")
## [1] "Optimo pero sin regresor"
arima_optimal = forecast::auto.arima(ts_gastos_casa_m)
arima_optimal
## Series: ts_gastos_casa_m
## ARIMA(1,0,0) with non-zero mean
##
## Coefficients:
## ar1 mean
## 0.2841 1016.1292
## s.e. 0.1275 29.2255
##
## sigma^2 = 27810: log likelihood = -397.69
## AIC=801.38 AICc=801.81 BIC=807.72
paste0("Optimo pero con regresor")
## [1] "Optimo pero con regresor"
arima_optimal2 = forecast::auto.arima(ts_gastos_casa_m, xreg=as.numeric(ts_uf_serie_corrected_m[1:(length(Gastos_casa_m$gasto_total))]))
arima_optimal2
## Series: ts_gastos_casa_m
## Regression with ARIMA(1,0,0) errors
##
## Coefficients:
## ar1 intercept xreg
## 0.2520 697.6354 10.1356
## s.e. 0.1296 268.0070 8.4706
##
## sigma^2 = 27678: log likelihood = -397.02
## AIC=802.03 AICc=802.75 BIC=810.47
forecast_uf<-
cbind.data.frame(fecha=as.Date(seq(as.numeric(as.Date(uf_serie_corrected$date3[length(uf_serie_corrected$date3)])),(as.numeric(as.Date(uf_serie_corrected$date3[length(uf_serie_corrected$date3)]))+299),by=1), origin = "1970-01-01"),forecast::forecast(fit_tbats, h=300)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(ano_m=stringr::str_extract(fecha,".{7}")) %>%
dplyr::group_by(ano_m)%>%
dplyr::summarise(uf=(mean(`Hi 95`,na.rm=T))/1000,fecha=first(fecha))%>%
data.frame()
autplo2t2<-
autoplotly::autoplotly(forecast::forecast(arima_optimal2,xreg=c(forecast_uf$uf[1],forecast_uf$uf), h=12), ts.colour = "darkred",
predict.colour = "blue", predict.linetype = "dashed")%>%
plotly::layout(showlegend = F,
yaxis = list(title = "Gastos (en miles)"),
xaxis = list(
title="Fecha",
ticktext = as.list(seq_dates[seq(from = 1, to = (dim(Gastos_casa_m)[1]+12), by = 3)]),
tickvals = as.list(seq(from = 1, to = (dim(Gastos_casa_m)[1]+12), by = 3)),
tickmode = "array"#"array"
))
autplo2t2
fr_fit_tbats_m<-forecast::forecast(fit_tbats_m, h=12)
fr_fit_tbats_m2<-forecast::forecast(arima_optimal, h=12)
fr_fit_tbats_m3<-forecast::forecast(arima_optimal2, h=12,xreg=c(forecast_uf$uf[1],forecast_uf$uf))
dplyr::right_join(dplyr::group_by(reshape2::melt(data.frame(fr_fit_tbats_m3)),variable) %>% dplyr::summarise(max=max(value)), dplyr::group_by(reshape2::melt(data.frame(fr_fit_tbats_m2)),variable) %>% dplyr::summarise(max=max(value)),by="variable") %>%
dplyr::right_join(dplyr::group_by(reshape2::melt(data.frame(fr_fit_tbats_m)),variable) %>% dplyr::summarise(max=max(value)),by="variable") %>%
dplyr::mutate(variable=factor(variable,levels=c("Lo.95","Lo.80","Point.Forecast","Hi.80","Hi.95"))) %>%
dplyr::arrange(variable) %>%
knitr::kable(format="markdown", caption="Estimación en miles de la plata a gastar en el futuro (de aquí a 12 meses) según cálculos de gastos mensuales",
col.names= c("Item","Modelo ARIMA con regresor (UF)","Modelo ARIMA sin regresor","Modelo TBATS"))
## No id variables; using all as measure variables
## No id variables; using all as measure variables
## No id variables; using all as measure variables
| Item | Modelo ARIMA con regresor (UF) | Modelo ARIMA sin regresor | Modelo TBATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lo.95 | 771.1511 | 675.2312 | 745.5439 |
| Lo.80 | 887.7787 | 793.2280 | 832.9201 |
| Point.Forecast | 1108.0936 | 1016.1291 | 1026.8549 |
| Hi.80 | 1328.4084 | 1239.0303 | 1265.8909 |
| Hi.95 | 1445.0360 | 1357.0271 | 1414.1699 |
path_sec2<- paste0("https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/",Sys.getenv("SUPERSECRET"),"/export?format=csv&id=",Sys.getenv("SUPERSECRET"),"&gid=847461368")
Gastos_casa_mensual_2022 <- readr::read_csv(as.character(path_sec2),
#col_names = c("Tiempo", "gasto", "fecha", "obs", "monto", "gastador","link"),
skip=0)
## Rows: 80 Columns: 4
## -- Column specification --------------------------------------------------------
## Delimiter: ","
## chr (1): mes_ano
## dbl (3): n, Tami, Andrés
##
## i Use `spec()` to retrieve the full column specification for this data.
## i Specify the column types or set `show_col_types = FALSE` to quiet this message.
head(Gastos_casa_mensual_2022,5) %>%
knitr::kable("markdown",caption="Resumen mensual, primeras 5 observaciones")
| n | mes_ano | Tami | Andrés |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | marzo_2019 | 175533 | 68268 |
| 2 | abril_2019 | 152640 | 55031 |
| 3 | mayo_2019 | 152985 | 192219 |
| 4 | junio_2019 | 291067 | 84961 |
| 5 | julio_2019 | 241389 | 205893 |
(
Gastos_casa_mensual_2022 %>%
reshape2::melt(id.var=c("n","mes_ano")) %>%
dplyr::mutate(gastador=as.factor(variable)) %>%
dplyr::select(-variable) %>%
ggplot2::ggplot(aes(x = n, y = value, color=gastador)) +
scale_color_manual(name="Gastador", values=c("red", "blue"))+
geom_line(size=1) +
#geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2019-06-24"),linetype = "dashed") +
labs(y="Gastos (en miles)",x="Meses", subtitle="Azul= Tami; Rojo= Andrés") +
ggtitle( "Gastos Mensuales (total manual)") +
scale_y_continuous(labels = f <- function(x) paste0(x/1000)) +
# scale_color_manual(name = "Gastador", values= c("blue", "red"), labels = c("Tami", "Andrés")) +
# scale_x_yearweek(breaks = "1 month", minor_breaks = "1 week", labels=date_format("%m/%y")) +
# guides(color = F)+
theme_custom() +
theme(axis.text.x = element_text(vjust = 0.5,angle = 35)) +
theme(
panel.border = element_blank(),
panel.grid.major = element_blank(),
panel.grid.minor = element_blank(),
axis.line = element_line(colour = "black")
)
) %>% ggplotly()
Sys.getenv("R_LIBS_USER")
## [1] "D:\\a\\_temp\\Library"
sessionInfo()
## R version 4.1.2 (2021-11-01)
## Platform: x86_64-w64-mingw32/x64 (64-bit)
## Running under: Windows Server x64 (build 20348)
##
## Matrix products: default
##
## locale:
## [1] LC_COLLATE=Spanish_Chile.1252 LC_CTYPE=Spanish_Chile.1252
## [3] LC_MONETARY=Spanish_Chile.1252 LC_NUMERIC=C
## [5] LC_TIME=Spanish_Chile.1252
##
## attached base packages:
## [1] grid stats graphics grDevices utils datasets methods
## [8] base
##
## other attached packages:
## [1] CausalImpact_1.3.0 bsts_0.9.10 BoomSpikeSlab_1.2.6
## [4] Boom_0.9.15 scales_1.3.0 ggiraph_0.8.9
## [7] tidytext_0.4.1 DT_0.32 janitor_2.2.0
## [10] autoplotly_0.1.4 rvest_1.0.4 plotly_4.10.4
## [13] xts_0.13.2 forecast_8.21.1 wordcloud_2.6
## [16] RColorBrewer_1.1-3 SnowballC_0.7.1 tm_0.7-11
## [19] NLP_0.2-1 tsibble_1.1.4 lubridate_1.9.3
## [22] forcats_1.0.0 dplyr_1.1.4 purrr_1.0.2
## [25] tidyr_1.3.1 tibble_3.2.1 tidyverse_2.0.0
## [28] gsynth_1.2.1 lattice_0.20-45 GGally_2.2.1
## [31] ggplot2_3.5.0 gridExtra_2.3 plotrix_3.8-4
## [34] sparklyr_1.8.4 httr_1.4.7 readxl_1.4.3
## [37] zoo_1.8-12 stringr_1.5.1 stringi_1.8.3
## [40] data.table_1.15.0 reshape2_1.4.4 fUnitRoots_4021.80
## [43] plyr_1.8.9 readr_2.1.5
##
## loaded via a namespace (and not attached):
## [1] uuid_1.2-0 systemfonts_1.0.5 selectr_0.4-2
## [4] lazyeval_0.2.2 websocket_1.4.1 crosstalk_1.2.1
## [7] listenv_0.9.1 digest_0.6.34 foreach_1.5.2
## [10] htmltools_0.5.7 fansi_1.0.6 ggfortify_0.4.16
## [13] magrittr_2.0.3 doParallel_1.0.17 tzdb_0.4.0
## [16] globals_0.16.2 vroom_1.6.5 sandwich_3.1-0
## [19] askpass_1.2.0 timechange_0.3.0 anytime_0.3.9
## [22] tseries_0.10-55 colorspace_2.1-0 xfun_0.42
## [25] crayon_1.5.2 jsonlite_1.8.8 iterators_1.0.14
## [28] glue_1.7.0 gtable_0.3.4 car_3.1-2
## [31] quantmod_0.4.26 abind_1.4-5 mvtnorm_1.2-4
## [34] DBI_1.2.2 rngtools_1.5.2 Rcpp_1.0.12
## [37] lfe_2.9-0 viridisLite_0.4.2 xtable_1.8-4
## [40] bit_4.0.5 Formula_1.2-5 htmlwidgets_1.6.4
## [43] timeSeries_4032.109 gplots_3.1.3.1 ellipsis_0.3.2
## [46] spatial_7.3-14 farver_2.1.1 pkgconfig_2.0.3
## [49] nnet_7.3-16 sass_0.4.8 dbplyr_2.4.0
## [52] chromote_0.2.0 utf8_1.2.4 labeling_0.4.3
## [55] tidyselect_1.2.0 rlang_1.1.3 later_1.3.2
## [58] munsell_0.5.0 cellranger_1.1.0 tools_4.1.2
## [61] cachem_1.0.8 cli_3.6.2 generics_0.1.3
## [64] evaluate_0.23 fastmap_1.1.1 yaml_2.3.8
## [67] processx_3.8.3 knitr_1.45 bit64_4.0.5
## [70] caTools_1.18.2 future_1.33.1 nlme_3.1-153
## [73] doRNG_1.8.6 slam_0.1-50 xml2_1.3.6
## [76] tokenizers_0.3.0 compiler_4.1.2 rstudioapi_0.15.0
## [79] curl_5.2.0 bslib_0.6.1 highr_0.10
## [82] ps_1.7.6 fBasics_4032.96 Matrix_1.6-5
## [85] its.analysis_1.6.0 urca_1.3-3 vctrs_0.6.5
## [88] pillar_1.9.0 lifecycle_1.0.4 lmtest_0.9-40
## [91] jquerylib_0.1.4 bitops_1.0-7 R6_2.5.1
## [94] promises_1.2.1 KernSmooth_2.23-20 janeaustenr_1.0.0
## [97] parallelly_1.37.0 codetools_0.2-18 ggstats_0.5.1
## [100] assertthat_0.2.1 boot_1.3-28 gtools_3.9.5
## [103] MASS_7.3-54 openssl_2.1.1 withr_3.0.0
## [106] fracdiff_1.5-3 parallel_4.1.2 hms_1.1.3
## [109] quadprog_1.5-8 timeDate_4032.109 rmarkdown_2.25
## [112] snakecase_0.11.1 carData_3.0-5 TTR_0.24.4
#save.image("__analisis.RData")
sesion_info <- devtools::session_info()
dplyr::select(
tibble::as_tibble(sesion_info$packages),
c(package, loadedversion, source)
) %>%
DT::datatable(filter = 'top', colnames = c('Row number' =1,'Variable' = 2, 'Percentage'= 3),
caption = htmltools::tags$caption(
style = 'caption-side: top; text-align: left;',
'', htmltools::em('Packages')),
options=list(
initComplete = htmlwidgets::JS(
"function(settings, json) {",
"$(this.api().tables().body()).css({
'font-family': 'Helvetica Neue',
'font-size': '50%',
'code-inline-font-size': '15%',
'white-space': 'nowrap',
'line-height': '0.75em',
'min-height': '0.5em'
});",#;
"}")))